SpaceX Stock Faces a Rare Sell Call Even as Revenue Surge and Starship's First Orbital Bid Dominate the Headlines

SpaceX stock rises 2.1% after DZ Bank's sell initiation, as Q2 revenue hits $7.81B and Starlink drives growth with 12M subscribers.

The most striking thing about SpaceX's second-quarter earnings isn't just the 92 percent revenue surge to $7.81 billion—it's the fact that the stock managed to climb on the same day a major European bank slapped it with its first sell rating. That disconnect between Wall Street skepticism and market resilience is shaping up to be the defining feature of the company's early life as a public entity.

The DZ Bank initiated coverage on Friday with a sell recommendation and a $100 price target, a significant discount to where shares were trading. Analyst Markus Leistner warned of a "crash risk in the valuation orbit," citing the heavy capital demands of the business against a backdrop of persistent net losses. The market's response was telling: shares rose 2.1 percent anyway, closing the session with a modest gain.

The Bull Case Still Holds the Floor

Despite the bearish initiation, the broader analyst community remains firmly in the buy camp. Roughly three-quarters of the houses covering SpaceX maintain buy ratings, with the average price target hovering near $226. That optimism is anchored in the fundamentals from the second quarter, which delivered a loss per share of just $0.09 against forecasts of $0.26—a beat that helped explain Friday's upward move.

Starlink continues to be the engine room. The satellite internet division generated $4.3 billion in revenue, accounting for roughly 55 percent of the total, while operating profit in the segment climbed 66 percent. Subscriber numbers have doubled to 12 million. The constellation itself crossed the 11,000-satellite threshold this week, cementing its position as the operational backbone of the company.

The launch business, by contrast, remains a drag. The Space segment—the smallest of the three divisions—posted $962 million in revenue against an operating loss of $542 million. That didn't stop SpaceX from setting a record: two Falcon 9 missions, USSF-366 and Globalstar, launched over the weekend in the shortest interval ever recorded between two orbital flights, bringing the year's Falcon 9 tally to 96 launches.

The Capital Question

The DZ Bank's bearish stance zeroes in on a specific vulnerability: the sheer scale of investment required to sustain growth. Capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion in the quarter, with $15.8 billion funneled into AI infrastructure. Management has signaled plans for roughly $800 billion in cumulative investment by 2030. Against that backdrop, the quarterly net loss of $541 million—though sharply improved from the $1 billion loss a year earlier—raises legitimate questions about valuation.

The revenue picture, however, tells a different story. Sales nearly doubled year over year, climbing from $4.1 billion to $7.8 billion in the second quarter. That kind of growth trajectory is precisely why the majority of analysts remain constructive even as the bears point to the capital intensity of the model.

A Crowded Supply Calendar

The stock's technical picture is complicated by a wave of share unlocks. On Thursday, 319 million additional shares became tradable, expanding the free float by roughly 20 percent. That followed an earlier dip below the $135 IPO price on August 20, triggered by the first lock-up expiry. Another 319 million shares are scheduled to hit the market on September 9, with larger tranches expected in the autumn and toward year-end.

Shares currently sit about 5.4 percent below their 50-day moving average, reflecting a short-term trend that's bruised but not broken. The stock is trading roughly 40 percent below its 52-week high of $194.46 set in mid-June, yet remains 28 percent above the low of $91.04 touched in early August—a range that underscores just how volatile the post-IPO period has been.

That volatility is amplified by leveraged products. Direxion has launched both long and short certificates on SpaceX, timed almost precisely with the first earnings release and the initial lock-up expiry. The short product arrived just as the first batch of restricted shares became tradable, adding another layer of complexity to the price action.

Starship's Moment Approaches

The next major catalyst is Flight 14, the first genuine attempt at an orbital mission for the Starship system. During the August 4 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk confirmed the launch should take place this month, following a successful static-fire test of all six Raptor engines. The mission will attempt to deploy upgraded Starlink satellites into orbit—a first for the system.

Musk also signaled an ambitious new maneuver: catching the upper stage at the launch site. The company has never attempted this before, and it remains subject to regulatory approval. Success would mark a significant step toward full reusability. Musk's confidence extends to launch cadence as well; he expects Starship to fly at least once daily within a year, possibly more frequently.

Institutional Conviction Persists

The analyst debate hasn't deterred prominent institutional investors. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added roughly 205,000 SpaceX shares on Friday, valued at around $27.4 million, funded in part by selling Palantir holdings. The move signals that while valuation debates rage on the sell side, at least some high-profile money managers see the long-term opportunity as outweighing the near-term risks.

For investors, the coming weeks present a dual test: the high-stakes Starship flight with its unprecedented booster recovery attempt, and the next wave of share unlocks in early September. The gap between the company's fundamental momentum and its valuation concerns is likely to keep the stock's swings sharp for the foreseeable future.