SpaceX Stock Climbs Ahead of Lockup Expiry as Starship's First Commercial Payload Nears

SpaceX shares gain 2.5% to €132.16 despite lockup expiry, as Q2 AI revenue jumps 247% and Starship's first orbital test nears.

Shares rise 2.5% to €132.16 as investors shrug off looming share supply, betting on surging AI revenue and a pivotal orbital test

SpaceX equity is trading higher on Tuesday, advancing 2.5 percent to €132.16, even as the company stands on the cusp of its most significant shareholder-liquidity event since listing. The gains arrive less than 24 hours before the expiry of a 90-day lockup period on September 9, which will free roughly 319 million shares for trading, with an additional 59 million becoming available the following day.

The resilience is notable given that lockup expirations typically weigh on share prices, as early backers and insiders gain the ability to monetize positions. That the stock is holding firm — and indeed advancing — suggests investors are prioritizing the company's operational momentum over near-term supply dynamics.

A Growth Story That Overshadows Supply Concerns

The confidence is underpinned by a blockbuster second quarter. Revenue surged 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, comfortably clearing the $6.81 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, climbing 191 percent to $3.5 billion, though the company still recorded a net loss of $541 million.

The connectivity division delivered $4.3 billion in revenue, adding 1.7 million new subscribers in the quarter. But the standout performer was the artificial intelligence segment, where revenue skyrocketed 247 percent to $2.6 billion, fueled by heavy infrastructure spending.

Management has set its sights high: the company projects an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026 and has pulled forward its internal target of $1 trillion in annual sales from 2031 to 2030.

Starship's Commercial Debut and a Strategic Pivot

Attention is also turning to the launchpad. SpaceX has filed September 15 with the Federal Communications Commission as the target date for Starship's 14th test flight — a mission that would mark the vehicle's first orbital deployment of operational communications satellites.

The company's ambitions for Starship extend beyond a single mission. Kiko Dontchev, vice president of launches, has signaled that future Starlink missions departing from Florida will transition exclusively from Falcon 9 to Starship, with the first such launch targeted before year-end.

The weekend provided a reminder of the current workhorse's reliability: a Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Sunday carrying 27 Starlink satellites, marking the 80th Starlink mission of the year.

Not everything has gone smoothly. NASA and SpaceX postponed the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station on Monday after engineers detected an oxidizer-system leak in the Dragon capsule during pre-launch preparations. The flight had been scheduled for September 12.

Analysts See Upside Beyond the Lockup

Wall Street remains constructive despite the impending share overhang. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $280 from $250 on September 2, reaffirming an "Outperform" rating and citing SpaceX's vertically integrated AI platform as a decisive competitive moat — pointing to the company's data assets, capital base, and Nvidia partnership as enabling rapid infrastructure buildout.

Bernstein sees fair value at $248, while the broader FactSet consensus sits at $225.87. The gap between these targets and the current trading level implies analysts view the lockup as a temporary headwind rather than a fundamental concern.

The stock's chart tells a more cautious near-term story. At €132.16, shares remain roughly 34 percent below the 52-week high of €194.46 reached in June. The $150 level has proven a stubborn resistance point, with the stock most recently peaking at $152.30 on September 3 before retreating. A decisive break above $155 could open a path toward $160–165, while a slide below $140 might expose downside to $130.

Over the past 30 days, the stock has nonetheless gained 7.2 percent and trades 9.2 percent above its 50-day moving average.

Distractions on the Periphery

Away from the core financial and launch narratives, a few curiosities have surfaced. Ross Gerber, a prominent investor, has floated speculation about a potential merger with Tesla that could reshape the company's long-term equity story. Meanwhile, NASA confirmed that debris from a 2025 SpaceX rocket stage made an unplanned impact on the Moon — though without posing risk to active lunar missions.

Closer to home, a shrimp fisherman in Brownsville, Texas, is blaming SpaceX debris for $12,000 in damage to his equipment after his gear was struck near Boca Chica Beach in early September.

For now, though, the market's focus is squarely on the coming days. Whether the lockup unleashes a wave of selling or the stock's operational momentum carries the day will determine if the recent recovery has further to run.