SpaceX Stock Caught in a Supply Squeeze as Lock-Up Tranches and a Rare Sell Call Collide

SpaceX shares fall below 50-day MA as second lock-up tranche hits market, with more unlocks ahead and a rare sell rating from DZ Bank.

The post-IPO honeymoon for SpaceX is officially over. Thursday's session delivered another sharp decline, with the stock shedding more than 4 percent as the second wave of previously restricted shares hit the open market. The move extends a turbulent stretch that has seen the equity fall roughly 5 percent over the past week, leaving it trading below its 50-day moving average of around 124 euros.

A Staggered Unlock Creates Persistent Pressure

The immediate catalyst is the second of several staggered lock-up expirations. Roughly 319 million shares became freely tradable on Thursday, part of a carefully choreographed release schedule designed to gradually expand the float. The first tranche, which unlocked 911.5 million shares on August 6, had actually been absorbed without much drama — the stock even managed to post gains that day.

This time around, the market's reaction was notably more cautious. With additional tranches of 319 million shares slated for September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24, and the full release scheduled for December 8, investors are bracing for a prolonged period of supply overhang. Notably, Elon Musk's own stake of 6.42 billion shares remains locked until June 2027, insulating the market from the largest single holder.

The float expansion has been dramatic in relative terms. The first unlock alone increased the freely tradable portion of SpaceX from roughly 5 percent to 12 percent of total shares outstanding, and Thursday's tranche widens that further. It's a familiar pattern for recent IPOs: early investors and employees cashing out in waves, creating a supply-demand imbalance that weighs on the price.

A Rare Sell Call Adds Fuel to the Fire

Compounding the supply dynamics, DZ Bank initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating and a fair value of $100 per share. Analyst Markus Leistner explicitly warned of "crash risk," a starkly contrarian stance in a market where the broader analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish. Of 43 analysts tracked, 24 maintain "Buy" ratings, 5 are at "Hold," and just 3 recommend selling. The average price target sits between roughly $226 and $232, well above current levels.

The valuation debate has grown increasingly heated. NYU Stern professor Scott Galloway waded into the fray on Tuesday, branding the stock "crazy overvalued" and suggesting a fair value of just $10 to $30 per share. His argument centers on market mechanics — specifically, the artificially low float that existed before the lock-up releases began.

At the other end of the spectrum, UBS reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a $210 target just days ago, while Macquarie went further in early August with an "Outperform" and a $250 target. The wide dispersion underscores just how uncertain the market is about pricing a company with SpaceX's growth trajectory.

Starship Timeline Slips, Adding to Skepticism

Musk himself provided additional headwinds, conceding that the planned catch of a Starship upper stage won't succeed for "several months" — later than many investors had hoped. Prediction markets have taken note: the probability of a successful ship catch on the next flight has fallen to just 3 percent, while the odds of full reusability before 2027 dropped from 57 percent to 42 percent.

The operational picture, however, tells a different story. SpaceX completed its 100th successful mission of 2026 on Wednesday, launching 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Starlink constellation now numbers 11,003 satellites in orbit, and the division has reached 12 million active subscribers. Second-quarter revenue came in at $7.81 billion, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $6.82 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion.

The company is also preparing for Starship Flight 14, tentatively scheduled for late August from Starbase, Texas. That mission would mark a significant milestone: the first deployment of Starlink Version 3 satellites into operational orbit, along with another recovery attempt of the upper stage. Meanwhile, the "Ship 40" booster that landed intact in the Indian Ocean on July 24 and drifted for 24 days has been towed to Christmas Island for technical analysis.

Regulatory Crosswinds and a Valuation Conundrum

Investors are also monitoring a regulatory development with potentially significant implications. The FAA has proposed exempting commercial space launch and reentry permits from 13 federal environmental laws, including the Endangered Species Act. The public comment period runs until August 31, and environmental and tribal organizations have already signaled strong opposition. As the largest beneficiary of streamlined launch approvals, SpaceX has a substantial stake in the outcome.

The valuation question remains the central tension. Musk has floated the possibility of $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, building from an expected $44.63 billion in 2026. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has established a position of 3.29 million shares worth $443 million since the IPO. Yet the stock's current valuation metrics give pause: one investor noted a price-to-earnings ratio of 72 based on 2027 expected earnings, versus an average of 25 for the IT sector.

The numbers tell the story of the recent slide. The stock sits 41 percent below its 52-week high of 194.46 euros, reached in June. The annualized 30-day volatility of 92 percent is extraordinary for a company of this size. And with the next lock-up tranches looming and the Starship timeline slipping, the near-term path appears fraught — even as the long-term growth narrative remains firmly intact.