SpaceX Shares Slip Below IPO Price as Lock-Up Waves Keep Supply Overhang Alive

SpaceX shares slide beneath $135 IPO price amid lock-up expiries, but analysts see upside to $232 consensus target.

The arithmetic of share supply is proving a heavier weight on SpaceX than the company's growth narrative right now. With another tranche of restricted stock hitting the market on Thursday, the equity slid beneath its initial public offering price of $135, extending a weekly decline that market data put at 4.6 percent. Friday brought a tentative bounce — the shares changed hands at €115.44, up 0.6 percent — but the recovery looks thin.

The Supply Calendar Keeps Growing

Thursday's release of 319 million shares marks the 70th tranche in a staggered series of lock-up expiries that began with the company's Nasdaq debut in June. It follows an early-August wave of 911.5 million shares, which at the time produced a six percent gain — a reminder that the market's reaction to these events has not been uniformly negative.

The broader picture is one of persistent overhang. Roughly 88 percent of the approximately 13 billion outstanding shares are slated to become tradable in stages through 2027. The next major test arrives in November, when a tranche of 1.3 billion shares is due, followed by another 180-day lock-up expiry in December. One mitigating factor: Elon Musk's own holding of 6.42 billion shares remains locked until June 2027, which analysts say rules out the single largest potential source of selling pressure.

Options activity reflects the unease. The put-call ratio sits at 1.10, with implied volatility around 62.6 percent. Technical levels have crystallized around $130 support and $150 resistance; a break below the former could open a path toward $120–125, while holding it would keep a retest of $150 and beyond in play.

Analysts Look Past the Noise

The sell-side has largely held its ground despite the price action. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed an overweight rating with a 12-month target of $300, while the consensus across 32 analysts stands near $232 — well above current levels.

That gap between near-term price pressure and longer-term valuation views is the defining feature of the tape. The operational story gives the bulls something to anchor on: second-quarter 2026 revenue jumped 92 percent year-over-year to $7.81 billion, though the company still posted a net loss of $541 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.54 billion, and Starlink ended the quarter with 12 million subscribers generating average monthly revenue of $66 per user.

Competition and Catalysts in the Background

The competitive landscape shifted slightly on August 18, when Chinese launch provider LandSpace successfully landed the first stage of its Zhuque-3 rocket. The vehicle's payload capacity of roughly 40,000 pounds to low Earth orbit trails the Falcon 9's approximately 50,000 pounds, but the milestone underscores progress abroad in reusable rocketry. SpaceX, for its part, has logged more than 600 successful booster landings since 2015.

Elsewhere, the company is pushing into orbital data infrastructure. Musk recently received approval to acquire Mesh Optical Technologies, a fiber-optics specialist founded by former SpaceX engineers, with the technology slated to support the Starmind project — a planned network of AI satellites in orbit.

A Dementi That Raised More Questions

Friday also brought a report that SpaceX, alongside AST SpaceMobile, had expressed interest in a spectrum package from Grain Management valued at roughly $6 billion. The licenses concern the 800 MHz band, with the FCC expecting bids by November 5 and initial offers reportedly due as early as September. Musk responded on social media by calling the reporting "not true," without specifying whether he was disputing the bid, the sum, or the interest itself. Reports that SpaceX is among companies that have expressed general interest in the spectrum remain uncontested.

Starship Timing Adds to the Fog

Market observers have also pointed to delays in the Starship program as a drag on sentiment. The vehicle is widely considered a central driver of SpaceX's long-term valuation, and the stock has shown sensitivity to news flow around its development timeline.

The share price is thus caught between two forces: the mechanical dilution of a staggered lock-up schedule and fundamental questions about new business lines, from spectrum acquisitions to orbital data centers. For investors, the November tranche of 1.3 billion shares looms as the next inflection point — one that will show whether the pattern of recent weeks holds or finally breaks.