SpaceX Shares Recover as Lock-Up Fears Subside, But Short Sellers and Regulatory Clouds Linger

SpaceX shares surge 22.5% weekly as AI growth offsets Q2 loss; lock-up expiry absorbed, analyst targets diverge.

The market's verdict on SpaceX's first weeks as a public company has been anything but settled. After a volatile stretch that saw the stock whipsaw on earnings, share unlockings, and analyst recalibrations, the equity closed Friday at €115.14 — up 22.53% on the week and 15.66% on the day. The rebound, however, masks a market structure that remains unusually contentious for a newly listed name.

A Record Quarter That Initially Fell Flat

The week's drama began Tuesday with second-quarter results that, on the surface, looked impressive. Revenue hit $7.8 billion, a 92% jump year-over-year and comfortably ahead of the roughly $6.9 billion consensus forecast. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Yet the company still posted a net loss of $541 million, or $0.09 per share, and the stock initially dropped more than 7% in after-hours trading as investors weighed persistent losses against heavy capital expenditure.

The narrative shifted once attention turned to the artificial intelligence segment. Revenue there surged 247% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA swung from a year-ago loss to a positive $1.146 billion. Underpinning that growth is a deal with Reflection AI under which SpaceX supplies $150 million worth of Nvidia chips monthly. Management added on the earnings call that additional cloud contracts worth $6.7 billion had been signed in the early weeks of the third quarter, with revenue set to ramp over a six-month period starting in October. Elon Musk reiterated that the company's AI data centers will run exclusively on Nvidia hardware, targeting over 2 gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end and nearly 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027.

Lock-Up Expiry Fails to Bite

A major overhang cleared Thursday when the first post-IPO lock-up expired. That released up to 911.5 million insider shares worth roughly $101 billion — expanding the free float from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares, according to Bloomberg data. Many traders had braced for selling pressure; instead, the stock closed up 6.1% on the day, a sign that demand absorbed the additional supply with ease.

A second tranche of up to 455.8 million shares remains locked because the stock trades below its $135 IPO price — a clause designed to permit early sales that hasn't been triggered. More unlocks lie ahead: 319 million shares become tradable on August 12, with additional tranches rolling out through the fall. By year-end, more than four billion shares are expected to be freely tradable. Musk's 6.4 billion shares, however, stay locked until June 2027.

Analyst Divergence Widens

The recovery has not convinced everyone. Piper Sandler cut its price target Wednesday from $156 to $140, with analyst Alex Potter noting that while operational performance has exceeded market expectations, the stock has still come under pressure — a disconnect that has left investors searching for an explanation.

Argus Research struck a more bullish note Friday. Analyst Steve Silver upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" with a $160 price target, citing the rapid payback on AI investments and what he called the company's "robust growth" in computing capacity.

Short Interest and Unusual Sellers

Despite the week's gains, bearish positioning remains elevated. According to S3 Partners, 35% of available free float is currently sold short — an exceptionally high figure for a stock that only listed in June. The annualized 30-day volatility sits near 90%, underscoring how far this equity sits from the typical large-cap profile.

The lock-up release also surfaced an unusual seller. Jessie Bates III, a safety for the Atlanta Falcons, invested roughly $150,000 in SpaceX in 2022 at a $127 billion valuation. Through a spokesperson, he said he intends to sell his entire position — which, at the company's current $1.43 trillion valuation, he estimates could be worth more than $1.5 million.

Regulatory Overhang at Starbase

Beyond share mechanics, investors are tracking a regulatory matter with direct implications for the Starbase facility. The FAA has opened a comment period — docket FAA-2026-8614 — running until approximately August 27, on a proposed rule that would allow the agency to bypass 13 federal environmental laws, including the Endangered Species Act and the National Historic Preservation Act, when approving commercial rocket launches. Environmental groups filed for a preliminary injunction in July, arguing that land near a protected area could be permanently transferred before the case is resolved.

Launch Operations Continue Uninterrupted

Operationally, the company has kept up its usual cadence. On August 4, a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg carried 24 Starlink satellites to orbit — the 90th Falcon 9 flight of the year. The following day, another Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral with three AST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites, with the first stage completing its 30th landing on a drone ship. Late July also saw the 13th test flight of the Starship rocket, during which the upper stage completed a successful suborbital hop and deployed third-generation Starlink satellites.

For now, the stock's trajectory appears tied less to day-to-day operations and more to the interplay of heavy short interest, staggered share unlocks, and unresolved regulatory questions — a combination that suggests volatility may remain the defining feature of this listing for some time.