SpaceX's Widening Investor Base Meets a Valuation Gap That Refuses to Narrow

Norges Bank, Harvard, and Nvidia build SpaceX stakes amid record revenue, but analysts disagree on value by over $2 trillion.

The most striking thing about SpaceX's shareholder register right now isn't just who holds the stock—it's how much the people holding it disagree on what it's worth.

That tension was on full display this week as fresh 13F filings revealed a constellation of heavyweight institutions building positions in the company, even as Wall Street analysts remain split by a gulf of more than $2 trillion on the right price for the equity.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, disclosed its first-ever SpaceX stake: 0.05 percent of the company, valued at $1.22 billion as of June 30. The $2.3 trillion fund—the largest sovereign investor on the planet—has typically steered clear of Musk-linked ventures, making the entry a notable signal of long-term institutional conviction.

Harvard Management Company, meanwhile, holds roughly 12.9 million SpaceX shares worth about $2.2 billion, according to its own disclosures. That position accounts for more than half of the university's entire US equity portfolio and stands as its largest single holding, with roots stretching back more than a decade into early venture capital rounds. Other academic endowments have piled in as well: the University of California holds roughly $1 billion, the University of North Carolina has parked about ten percent of its endowment in the stock, and Washington University in St. Louis has allocated between 14 and 16 percent of its foundation assets to SpaceX.

Nvidia also surfaced in the shareholder list, holding approximately 122.8 million shares—a stake acquired through its multibillion-dollar investment in xAI. That positions the chipmaker among the six largest shareholders, trailing only Elon Musk himself and Alphabet.

The Bull Case, in Numbers

The institutional stampede comes alongside operating results that give the optimists plenty of ammunition. SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year and comfortably ahead of the $6.9 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191 percent to $3.5 billion.

The Starlink connectivity business reached 12 million subscribers—double the count from a year earlier—generating $4.3 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating profit. Management raised its guidance for the first time, projecting third-quarter connectivity revenue growth of more than 50 percent to $4.7 billion, with an operating margin of 37.5 percent.

The AI segment is the headline act, though. It grew 247 percent in the second quarter, fueled by cloud contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic. Musk has said he expects the AI division to overtake all other business lines by September.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees the market underpricing exactly that trajectory. His base case values SpaceX at $300 per share, arguing that investors currently assign just $12 per share to the AI business while pricing space and connectivity at roughly $127. In his bull scenario, the stock reaches $600.

The Bear Case, Also in Numbers

Morningstar's Nicholas Owens and Suriyansh Sharma beg to differ—dramatically. Their discounted cash flow analysis lands on an enterprise value of just $780 billion, nearly half the $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion private market valuation that circulated before the listing. Their reasoning: a narrow moat and an AI business with uncertain prospects.

They're not alone in their skepticism. Shortseller Jim Chanos has called the $1.75 trillion valuation unjustified, while NYU professor Aswath Damodaran pegs fair value at $1.3 trillion.

ARK Invest, predictably, occupies the opposite end of the spectrum. Cathie Wood's firm bought 3.29 million shares worth around $443 million after the debut, funding the purchase by trimming AMD, Tesla, and Rocket Lab positions. ARK's base case sees the company worth $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a bull scenario reaching $3.1 trillion.

Heavy Spending, Heavy Volatility

The bears also point to the capital expenditure burden. SpaceX's investment outlays reached $18.4 billion, with roughly $15.8 billion directed at AI infrastructure—a figure that briefly rattled investors. A chunk of that flows into "Terafab," a planned chip factory in Grimes County, Texas, developed jointly with Tesla. The initial investment is set at $16.8 billion, with the facility expected to create at least 3,000 jobs and span more than 100 million square feet. Across multiple construction phases, SpaceX alone could pour up to $119 billion into the project.

The stock's trading pattern reflects the competing narratives. Shares closed Friday at €120.96, down 1.2 percent on the day, still roughly 38 percent below the 52-week high of €194.46 reached on June 16. But the weekly gain of 5.1 percent—and a 2.7 percent advance over 30 days—suggests the summer sell-off may have run its course. Volatility remains elevated at 93 percent on a 30-day basis.

Rockets Keep Flying

Operationally, the cadence hasn't slowed. On Tuesday, a Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying 29 Starlink satellites, followed hours later by a Vandenberg launch with 24 more—the 72nd and 73rd Starlink missions of the year. Flight 14 of the Starship system is scheduled for August 28, featuring the first attempted catch of the upper stage by the launch tower.

The previous test flight in July delivered mixed results: the booster landing went according to plan, but only ten of thirteen engines ignited during reentry, with five still running at splashdown. The upper stage did successfully deploy 20 third-generation Starlink satellites in a realistic payload test.

For investors, the picture remains a study in contrasts: record subscriber growth, a surging AI business, and a marquee sovereign fund shareholder on one side; a valuation gap wider than the Pacific, eye-watering capital requirements, and a stock still nursing deep losses from its June peak on the other. The market hasn't picked a side yet—it's simply watching both.