SpaceX's Unlock Schedule Piles On Supply Pressure as Bulls and Bears Stake Out Extremes

SpaceX faces another 319M share unlock Thursday, part of 4.9B total by year-end. Analysts split wildly, with targets from $75 to $800.

The calendar at SpaceX is starting to look like a waterfall of shares. On Thursday, 319 million restricted shares come free from their lock-up period — the latest in a staggered series of releases that has kept the stock on edge for weeks. The equity closed at €124.22 on Tuesday, down 1.8 percent on the day, and while the monthly picture still shows an 18 percent gain, the shares remain 36 percent below the June 52-week high.

That Thursday release is merely the next installment in a much larger schedule. After an initial unlock of 912 million shares on August 6, more than 700 million are slated to become tradable in September, followed by over 650 million in October. Market observers calculate that roughly 4.9 billion shares in total will hit the market by year-end.

The pattern from the first unlock is instructive: the stock initially jumped around 35 percent after August 6 before concerns about fresh supply triggered renewed selling. The dynamic speaks to a market caught between genuine operational momentum and the mechanical overhang of shares steadily entering circulation.

The Bull-Bear Divide Is Unusually Wide

The analyst community has rarely been this polarized on a single name. At one end sits Bernstein's Doug Harned, who lifted his price target to $248 on Tuesday, pointing to a potential $600 billion revenue opportunity from orbital data centers by 2031. The average target across 31 analysts stands at $232.35 — implying upside of more than 60 percent from current levels. UBS sees $210, Morgan Stanley is at $300, and JPMorgan has set a $240 target, citing second-quarter revenue that nearly doubled and 250 percent growth in the AI segment.

At the other extreme sits George Noble, the former Fidelity manager, who calls SpaceX one of the best short candidates in the market. He pegs fair value at just $30 — a roughly 79 percent discount to where the stock traded — and points to a valuation of 90 to 140 times sales. He also criticizes the stock's index inclusion, describing it as a "manufactured squeeze," and notes that less than 5 percent of shares were freely tradable immediately after the IPO, a condition that distorts price discovery in both directions.

Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum occupies a middle-ground bearish stance with a Sell rating and a 12-month target of $75. The full analyst range spans from $75 to $800, a chasm that underscores just how differently growth promises and current valuation are being weighed.

Cursor Deal Closes as Revenue Momentum Builds

The immediate catalyst for much of the recent analyst activity was the completion of the $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, parent of the AI coding platform Cursor, on August 14. Cursor shareholders receive roughly 389 million SpaceX shares in exchange. The deal is set to be integrated into xAI, and Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu sees clear benefits for monetization and vertical integration.

Deutsche Bank responded by raising its 2027 revenue forecast to $115 billion from $97 billion, maintaining a Buy rating with a $235 price target. The operational numbers support some of that optimism: second-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 91.9 percent to $7.81 billion, while the loss per share of minus $0.09 came in well ahead of the consensus estimate of minus $0.26.

Starlink remains the growth engine, with roughly 12 million subscribers and operating income of $1.66 billion. But the capital demands are heavy — capex of $18.4 billion blew past expectations of $13 billion. Elon Musk has also pulled forward the company's revenue ambition, now targeting $1 trillion in annual sales by 2030, a year earlier than originally planned. Harned cautions that the AI narrative hinges on the success of full Starship reusability before orbital data centers can generate actual returns.

Institutional Positioning Tells a Mixed Story

The ownership picture emerging from recent disclosures is substantial. Alphabet holds a 7.2 percent stake valued at around $94 billion, while Nvidia has revealed a position worth roughly $21 billion and has committed more than $100 billion to AI initiatives over the next two years involving SpaceX. The Harvard Management Company reported SpaceX holdings of $2.2 billion — more than half of the endowment's entire US equity portfolio. Among hedge funds, D1 Capital stands out with over 126 million shares.

For investors, the near-term calculus remains tricky. The stock carries 30-day realized volatility of 92 percent, and the RSI at 55.7 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The unlock schedule will keep supply pressure front and center for weeks to come, even as the fundamental story — surging revenue, a closed AI acquisition, and ambitious long-term targets — continues to develop.