SpaceX's Two-Front Push: A $100 Billion Louisiana Bet and a Quiet Farewell to Falcon 9

SpaceX advances Starship with a $100B Louisiana spaceport and Falcon 9 retirement, while stock remains 38% below highs.

The numbers tell two very different stories about SpaceX right now. One is a tale of staggering ambition — a $100 billion construction project in southern Louisiana, a rocket that just logged its 100th orbital mission of the year, and a stock that analysts at Morgan Stanley believe could nearly triple. The other is a story of caution: the same stock sits 38 percent below its 52-week high, and at least one research house has flagged concerns about the company's AI ambitions.

Both narratives converged this week as SpaceX made clear it is betting its operational future on Starship — even if the market has yet to fully embrace the vision.

The Louisiana Gambit

The centerpiece of that bet is a planned spaceport in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, which the company describes as the largest infrastructure project in the state's history. Construction is slated to begin in 2027, with the first launch targeted for 2029 and full operations expected by 2030. The facility will span 125,000 acres and feature five launch complexes, making it what the company claims will be the nation's fourth-largest launch site.

Local support is vocal. Governor Jeff Landry has backed the project, while Lafayette's mayor, Boulet, has suggested it could accelerate work on the I-49 Connector — a highway project still short roughly $2 billion in funding. A public meeting on the matter is scheduled for September 2. Proponents estimate the spaceport could generate up to 10,000 jobs.

Critics, however, point to tax exemptions, broad liability immunity, and SpaceX's history of environmental violations as reasons for pause. The company and the state have jointly initiated an environmental review of the project.

A Strategic Pivot in Florida

The Louisiana announcement lands as SpaceX executes a quieter but equally significant shift: the retirement of Falcon 9 from Starlink missions in Florida. A launch from Cape Canaveral marked the final Starlink flight of that rocket from the state, with future Florida-based Starlink missions moving to Starship. Vandenberg Space Force Base in California will continue handling regular Falcon 9 Starlink launches for now.

The division of labor underscores how deliberately SpaceX is reallocating capacity toward its next-generation vehicle. The transition comes amid a period of intense operational tempo — the company's 100th orbital mission of the year lifted off Tuesday from Vandenberg, carrying 29 Starlink satellites. Musk noted the constellation now exceeds 11,000 satellites in orbit.

Even a hiccup couldn't slow the cadence: a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral was delayed by an unspecified issue but succeeded the following day, with the booster landing on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas. SpaceX also completed a double Globalstar mission with a record turnaround of just 38.5 minutes between launches.

Starship's Progress and the AI Angle

The Starship program itself continues to mature. Late May saw the vehicle's twelfth test flight, which ended with a successful splashdown in the Indian Ocean after testing new engines and a redesigned launch pad.

That progress feeds into a broader growth narrative that has caught Wall Street's attention. Morgan Stanley has rated the stock Overweight with a $300 price target, arguing investors remain too cautious. The bank points to plans for 15 launch pads and a potential 5,800 launches per year by 2040.

Deepwater's Gene Munster has gone further, framing SpaceX as an emerging hyperscaler. He estimates the company now accounts for roughly 5 percent of Nvidia's quarterly revenue, up from 3 percent the prior quarter. Nvidia has named SpaceX among the first partners for its new Vera Rubin system.

Not everyone shares the enthusiasm. Morningstar has valued the company considerably lower, citing uncertainty in the AI business, which it says currently provides only a narrow competitive advantage.

Ownership and Market Position

The ownership picture adds another layer. According to Reuters, Musk disclosed a 48.4 percent stake in SpaceX in a regulatory filing dated June 30. Alphabet, meanwhile, valued its own SpaceX holding at approximately $94 billion as of the end of June.

The stock's market behavior reflects the tension between these competing narratives. Shares closed Wednesday at 119.74 euros, up 1.3 percent on the day and 4.4 percent for the week, with a 17 percent gain over the past month. The current price of 120.80 euros sits about 0.6 percent above the 50-day moving average, suggesting modest medium-term stability.

Yet the gap from the June mid-month peak of 194.46 euros — a 38 percent drawdown — serves as a reminder of how volatile the stock has been since its June listing. For investors, SpaceX presents a study in contrasts: unprecedented infrastructure spending, a rapidly scaling launch fleet, and growing AI relevance on one side; valuation concerns, AI-segment losses, and a stock still trading well below its highs on the other.