SpaceX's Twin Bets on Orbit and Louisiana Put a $100 Billion Question to Investors

SpaceX bets on orbital Nvidia AI data centers and a $100B Louisiana launch site, while stock trades 37% below its 52-week high.

Elon Musk is asking investors to believe in a future where computing happens above the Earth's atmosphere and rockets land themselves back on their launch towers. The company's stock, hovering around €122, has been caught between those two narratives — a 24% monthly gain tempered by the fact it still sits roughly 37% below its 52-week high of €194.46.

The more ambitious of the two projects is also the more contentious. Musk has pledged to launch Nvidia's Vera Rubin NVL72 systems into orbit by the fourth quarter of 2027 — a full year ahead of the original timeline. Each satellite would draw up to 250 kilowatts of power, and SpaceX's long-term blueprint envisions a constellation of as many as one million satellites. The partnership is, in Musk's words, "exclusive to Nvidia," a relationship that already runs deep: Nvidia holds roughly 122.7 million SpaceX shares worth $21 billion, representing nearly a third of its entire equity portfolio.

Skeptics, however, point to a fundamental obstacle that no amount of engineering enthusiasm can wave away. Cosmic radiation causes bit errors in chips, a physical vulnerability that, according to experts cited by the blog emptywheel, makes orbital data centers inherently unreliable. That hasn't stopped the company from pursuing the vision — Danish media have reported on SpaceX's plans to merge with Musk's AI venture xAI to build solar-powered data centers in space.

A Gulf Coast Megaport Takes Shape

On terra firma, SpaceX is committing even larger sums to a more conventional kind of expansion. The company plans to construct "Starbase Louisiana" on 125,000 acres in Vermilion Parish, with ten launch pads and a price tag of up to $100 billion. Construction is slated to begin in 2027, with the first launch targeted for 2029. The facility is expected to generate around 3,000 direct jobs paying an average salary of $92,600 annually.

Musk has also dangled a sweetener for the locals: a 50% discount on Starlink's residential service for residents of the surrounding region. The gesture signals how much the company needs community buy-in for a project of this scale.

The numbers behind the expansion are staggering in their own right. SpaceX invested $18.4 billion in the second quarter alone, against an order backlog of $47.5 billion and cash reserves of $100 billion. Musk's own projection — $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033 — strikes even bullish observers as aggressive. Morgan Stanley sees the figure as achievable, but not until 2040, and has set a $300 price target with an "Overweight" rating. The broader analyst consensus is more measured: 27 of 32 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average target of $216.33.

The Falcon Era Winds Down

Operationally, the company is executing a decisive transition. The final Falcon 9 launch carrying Starlink satellites from Florida has already taken place, and future East Coast missions will shift entirely to the Starship platform. Musk has confirmed plans to retire both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy once Starship achieves high flight frequency — potentially as early as 2028 for commercial missions.

The Starship program itself is hitting milestones. On Thursday, the 171-foot upper stage from Flight 13 was recovered, loaded onto a semi-submersible vessel in the Indian Ocean, and began its multi-month journey back to Texas. Management has already announced that Flight 14 will attempt the first tower catch of the upper stage at Starbase, Texas. The booster for that flight, Ship 41, completed a successful secondary six-engine test at the Massey's Test Site.

Competition and Caution

SpaceX is also playing offense on the regulatory front. The company filed a complaint with the FCC against the proposed $8 billion merger of Rocket Lab and Iridium, accusing Iridium of anti-competitive behavior in spectrum sharing. In the consumer market, meanwhile, Starlink is expanding its offerings with a "Personal Maritime" plan at $185 per month, providing boat owners with unlimited data in territorial waters and lifting international roaming restrictions.

The analyst community remains divided on valuation. Argus upgraded the stock to "Buy" with a $160 price target on Tuesday, following the company's first quarterly results since its public listing. Piper Sandler struck a more cautious tone the same day, issuing a "Neutral" rating with a $140 target and citing the company's aggressive investment strategy.

That divergence captures the central tension for investors: whether the billions poured into orbital AI infrastructure and a Gulf Coast megaport will ultimately justify the premium valuation. For now, the story itself remains the primary driver of the stock's momentum.