SpaceX's Split-Screen Weekend: A 33-Engine Roar, a Postponed Crew Mission, and a Widening AI Rift
Published on 08/30/2026 at 14:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The weekend delivered a study in contrasts for SpaceX. In Texas, the Super Heavy booster's 33 Raptor-V3 engines roared to life in a full static-fire test, clearing the way for the 14th Starship flight. In Florida, NASA and SpaceX pushed back the Crew-13 launch to the International Space Station after engineers discovered an oxidizer leak in the Dragon capsule's propulsion system during routine checks. A new target date has yet to be set.
The mixed signals extend to the stock itself. Shares closed Friday at EUR 122.14 in German trading, up 1.0 percent on the day and 4.2 percent for the week. That leaves the equity roughly 37 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 194.46, reached in June, though it has climbed about 24 percent over the past 30 days. With a relative strength index of 54.6 and a 34 percent cushion above the 52-week low, the technical picture reads as neutral — a terrain where fundamentals, not chart signals, are likely to steer the narrative.
The Bull Case: Morgan Stanley's Orbital Computing Thesis
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has doubled down on his Overweight rating and USD 300 price target, implying upside of 113 to 117 percent from recent closing levels. His model envisions roughly 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040, spread across 15 planned pads in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida. Launch costs are projected to fall from over USD 500 per kilogram today to under USD 150 by 2040 — a striking contrast with the Falcon 9's roughly USD 1,000 per kilogram in 2025.
The real prize, in Jonas's view, is orbital computing. From 2032 onward, he expects more than 80 percent of all launches to serve that purpose, with each additional gigawatt of in-space compute capacity contributing roughly USD 27 per share.
The Bear Case: Einhorn's Caution and Lockup Overhang
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital offers a more skeptical read, flagging the possibility of speculative excess. The stock's drift toward its IPO price of USD 135 — set when SpaceX listed on June 12, 2026, at a USD 1.75 trillion valuation — has done little to ease those concerns. After touching a high of USD 225.64, the shares have been pressured by the looming expiration of lockup periods, which promises a fresh wave of tradable supply.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Louisiana: A USD 100 Billion Bet on the Bayou
The growth narrative gains concrete form in Pecan Island, Louisiana, where SpaceX plans a roughly USD 100 billion Starbase facility. The site, spanning more than 125,000 acres, is designed as a largely self-sufficient spaceport with on-site propellant production, power generation, and deep-water ports. Construction is slated to begin in 2027, with first launches targeted for 2029 and up to ten pads planned.
Texas, meanwhile, is already seeing tangible progress. Brownsville's city council approved two agreements on Saturday, including a USD 220 million commitment to water projects in exchange for relinquishing municipal zoning control over 444 acres adjacent to the existing Starbase.
The AI Ecosystem: A Fracturing Partnership
The broader technology landscape is proving less cooperative. OpenAI has terminated its model-supply contract with Cursor — the company SpaceX acquired in August for USD 60 billion in an all-stock deal — effective November 12. OpenAI cited a lack of trust stemming from prior contract violations by Musk-affiliated companies. SpaceX counters that OpenAI models account for only about five percent of Cursor's traffic.
Musk's response was characteristically blunt: he called OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and co-founder Greg Brockman "completely unreliable" and accused the organization of abandoning its non-profit roots. A previous Musk lawsuit seeking USD 150 billion in damages was dismissed by a jury in May.
Starlink's Quiet Expansion
Operationally, the satellite business continues to advance. The United Arab Emirates granted Starlink a ten-year license on Friday for broadband services, with regulator TDRA approving a public communications network covering individuals, businesses, government entities, maritime, and aviation — positioned as a complement to existing fiber and 5G infrastructure. Copa Airlines is also moving forward: its entire Boeing 737 fleet will feature free Starlink internet for passengers starting in 2027, following a first Starlink-equipped flight in July.
The Quarter Behind and the Road Ahead
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of USD 7.8 billion against a net loss of USD 541 million, with investments reaching USD 18.4 billion. The Starship program's Booster 21 completed its 33-engine static fire on Friday, though a potential ship-catch attempt on Flight 14 awaits FAA approval, with a mid-September launch window expected.
The immediate calendar is crowded: a Crew-13 launch to reschedule, a Starship orbital flight awaiting regulatory sign-off, and an escalating dispute with OpenAI that underscores how deeply SpaceX is now woven into the broader AI and software ecosystem. Each development line carries weight for the valuation debate — and none of them is moving in a single direction.
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