SpaceX's Solar Bet and the $315 Billion Question: Hardware First, Hype Second

SpaceX has signed a contract with German equipment maker Singulus for a turnkey solar cell production line worth more than EUR 60 million, a deal that grounds the company's ambitions to power its Starmind AI satellites with hardware it controls. The agreement, inked yesterday, marks the first concrete order under a strategic partnership that has been running since March 2026.

The line is slated for delivery in the first half of 2027 and will use heterojunction (HJT) technology at SpaceX's satellite production site in Bastrop, Texas. Rather than buying finished solar cells, SpaceX is acquiring the machinery to make them — pulling an equipment partner into the buildout of its manufacturing base. Under the arrangement, the two companies will also collaborate on developing solar cells and production equipment.

Financing Ties Run Deeper Than a Single Order

The relationship extends well beyond one purchase. SpaceX provided Singulus with financing at the outset of the partnership and stepped in again in October with a subordinated, secured loan. That support can help the supplier scale up — but only if Singulus delivers the promised lines on schedule, and only to the extent it can ramp production step by step.

Elon Musk wrote on X yesterday that SpaceX had ordered equipment for an annual HJT solar output of 100 GW. Singulus has firmly confirmed only the first line, with additional units planned within the partnership. That initial line is described as having capacity in the triple-digit megawatt range.

For investors, the follow-on orders are the real test. Only binding additional purchases — and their execution — would turn a long-term expansion target into a correspondingly larger manufacturing base. The first contract provides a concrete starting point.

A Cheaper Route Than Gallium Arsenide

The technology itself may carry an economic edge. According to PV Tech, HJT cells are a candidate for satellites as a lower-cost alternative to gallium arsenide cells — an argument for the procurement, provided the technology meets the demands of the planned satellite deployment.

Timing matters here. SpaceX plans AI computing demonstrations in space from the end of 2027, with broader deployment envisioned no earlier than 2028. Delivery of the first solar cell line therefore lands ahead of those expansion stages, making execution more important than the headline target capacity. On-time equipment delivery, a successful production ramp and binding follow-up orders are what count. Get that sequence right and SpaceX builds a manufacturing foundation for its planned orbital AI infrastructure; delays would weigh on the schedule of that supply chain.

Deutsche Bank Lifts Its Sights

On the financial side, the bet on tight capacity is getting more concrete. Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank raised his 2028 revenue forecast by $18.7 billion to $315.3 billion, according to media reports, and lifted his EBITDA estimate by $18 billion to $237.1 billion. He kept his buy rating and $250 price target. The stock was up 2.0% in premarket trading today.

The reasoning is the interesting part. Yu ties his higher numbers to an expectation that limited data-center capacity will keep computing power scarce — a tailwind for SpaceX, in his view, as long as that scarcity persists and the expected business opportunities materialize. The underlying assumption becomes as important to investors as the upgraded figures themselves.

A forecast of that magnitude looks far ahead, and its durability hinges on whether anticipated scarcity actually generates the business Yu is modeling. At the same time, SpaceX must advance its announced technical projects. That is where the upcoming Starship flight offers a more tangible checkpoint.

Flight 15 and a Lunar Nod

Flight 15 is scheduled for November 13, subject to regulatory approval. For the first time, SpaceX will attempt to catch both Starship and Super Heavy at the launch site — an announced attempt with a clear technical objective. Until approval comes through, the date remains conditional, and catching both vehicles remains a planned test goal.

Beyond the rocket, NASA has supplied a longer-range anchor. On Saturday the agency selected SpaceX for a demonstration of communications coverage in the space between Earth and the Moon. Under an existing lunar logistics contract, Starship is to carry communications satellites into that region in 2028. SpaceX is also among eight companies allowed to compete for lunar transport missions under a framework running ten years and worth up to $10 billion.

Those pieces fit together into a single picture: analysts are betting on scarce computing power, while NASA is betting on future transport and communications services. The yardstick for SpaceX is whether it delivers on those expectations — with the coming Starship attempt as the next technical proving ground, and the first solar line in Bastrop as the first hardware milestone on the orbital AI roadmap.