SpaceX's Rocket Factory Keeps Setting Records, Even as Wall Street Argues Over the Price Tag

SpaceX hits 100 orbital launches in 2026, but Starship delays and AI capex fears split analysts from $75 to $248 price targets.

The gap between SpaceX's operational reality and its stock market narrative has rarely looked wider. On the same day the company notched its 100th orbital launch of 2026, analysts were publishing price targets for the shares that ranged from $100 to $248 — a spread that captures just how unsettled the debate over the company's valuation has become.

The shares closed Friday at €117.20, up 2.1% on the day, though that bounce did little to repair a bruising week. The stock finished the seven-session stretch down 3.1%, with investors still digesting Elon Musk's Thursday remarks that the next attempt to catch a returning Starship booster remains months away. The Wall Street Journal linked the pullback to those comments, noting that some shareholders had been positioning for a quicker success on the next test flight.

A Launch Cadence That Keeps Accelerating

The Starship timeline may be slipping, but the Falcon program is firing on all cylinders. Wednesday's mission from Vandenberg delivered 24 Starlink satellites to orbit, marking the company's 100th orbital launch of the year. A day later, another 24-satellite flight lifted off from Cape Canaveral after a 24-hour delay, with booster B1078 completing a successful landing on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas — the 652nd Falcon recovery overall and the 164th on that particular vessel.

The pace has been relentless all summer. On August 15, SpaceX pulled off two Falcon 9 missions — one for Globalstar, one for the US Space Force — separated by just 38.5 minutes, a record for the shortest gap between two launches. August 30 brings a Falcon Heavy flight carrying NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

The Bull Case: Starship, Data Centers, and a Tesla Tie-Up

Bernstein's Douglas Harned lifted his price target to $248 from $239 on Friday, pointing to the long-term value embedded in the Starship program and the potential for growth in orbital data centers. William Blair reaffirmed its buy recommendation the same day, citing SpaceX's dominance in reusable rocketry and a planned $16.8 billion chip factory venture with Tesla.

The operational numbers give the bulls plenty of ammunition. Second-quarter revenue climbed 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, even as the company booked a net loss of $541 million. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion of that funneled into AI infrastructure. Musk confirmed at an internal meeting that Starlink now counts more than 13 million end customers and 22 million monthly mobile users.

The Bear Case: An $800 Billion Bill

The DZ Bank sees a very different picture. Analyst Markus Leistner initiated coverage with a sell rating and a $100 price target, warning that SpaceX's ambitions in AI and space could require $800 billion in capital expenditures through 2030. Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum had already reaffirmed his sell rating with a $75 target on August 18.

The bears also have the lock-up calendar on their side. Roughly 319 million Class A shares — about 7% of the early release pool — became tradable on Thursday, and another tranche of similar size unlocks on September 9. Musk's own shares remain locked until June 2027.

Institutional Money Keeps Piling In

None of that has deterred the big holders. Tiger Global disclosed a position of 375,000 shares in its second-quarter filings. Nvidia reported holding roughly 122.76 million shares worth about $21 billion as of June 30. Alphabet's early bet — an initial $900 million investment in 2015 — was valued at approximately $94 billion at the end of the second quarter, with the company holding 551.2 million shares. Musk's own stake stood at 48.4% as of June 30, according to a regulatory filing reviewed by Reuters. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added more than 205,000 shares across several ETFs on Friday, spending roughly $27.4 million.

Washington Adds a Tailwind

The political environment is shifting in SpaceX's favor as well. President Donald Trump signed a memo directing federal agencies to evaluate public lands for new launch and reentry sites, a move that could expand capacity for the country's dominant commercial launch provider over the medium term.

The Technical Picture

The stock sits about 5.4% below its 50-day moving average, with a relative strength index of 50.8 suggesting no clear directional bias. It remains roughly 40% below its mid-June 52-week high but trades about 29% above the August low. With annualized volatility running at 91%, the wide divergence between analyst camps seems likely to keep producing sharp swings in both directions — even as the launchpad keeps getting busier.