SpaceX's Post-IPO Whiplash: A 911 Million-Share Flood Turns Into Fuel for the Bulls

SpaceX shares surge 15.8% weekly after lock-up expiry, despite retail selling; analysts diverge on AI-driven valuation, with targets from $75 to $800.

The narrative around SpaceX's publicly traded stock has flipped with remarkable speed. After retail investors turned net sellers for the first time since the June IPO and a massive insider lock-up expiry threatened to unleash a wave of selling, the shares have instead staged a ferocious rebound that has Wall Street scrambling to recalibrate its price targets.

The stock closed Friday up 15.66 percent at 115.14 euros, capping a weekly gain of 15.84 percent. That rally followed the expiration of a lock-up period on August 6 that freed roughly 911.5 million shares, expanding the freely tradable float by 143 percent to 1.55 billion shares. Many market participants had braced for a post-lock-up slide; instead, the equity jumped about 23 percent across the two subsequent trading sessions. The move underscores a historical pattern: over four decades, the average stock reaction on lock-up expiry dates has been just minus 1.5 percent, as markets typically price in the additional supply well in advance.

The recovery is all the more striking given the turbulence that preceded it. Retail investors offloaded a net $4.5 million on Friday — their first net-selling session since the June 12 IPO — after the stock had fallen 22 percent below its $135 issue price. That selling pressure was amplified by the lock-up itself, which doubled the stock's market liquidity, according to Reuters. The resulting volatility has been extreme, with 30-day annualized volatility hovering near 90 percent.

A Wall Street Schism Over the AI Story

The rebound has exposed an unusually wide divergence in how analysts view the company's prospects. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target — implying roughly 125 percent upside from the recent US closing price of $133.11. Jonas argues that the AI business accounts for more than half of the company's fair value, pointing to a $100 billion cash reserve and a $47.5 billion order backlog.

At the opposite end of the spectrum sits Piper Sandler with a $140 target, while the consensus across 31 analysts lands at $229.54. The full range of individual price targets stretches from $75 to $800. Goldman Sachs, which rates the stock "Buy" with a $220 target, drew a comparison to Palantir in its analysis — a name it only rates neutrally. Other bullish voices include Argus Research ($160), Wells Fargo ($215), Cantor Fitzgerald ($246), and Needham ($250).

Fundamentals Beneath the Noise

The earnings report delivered August 4 provides the foundation for the bull case. Revenue surged 92 percent year over year to $7.8 billion in the second quarter, though the company posted a net loss of $541 million, or $0.09 per share. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion during the period — a 550 percent increase year over year — signaling that losses stem primarily from aggressive infrastructure buildout rather than operational weakness.

The AI infrastructure segment has been the standout performer, with quarterly revenue climbing 247 percent to $2.6 billion, even as it continues to post an operating loss of $1.3 billion. Starlink, meanwhile, delivered an operating profit of $1.66 billion on the back of twelve million subscribers as of June 30 — double the prior year's figure — with average revenue per user stabilizing at $66.

Momentum continues to build on multiple fronts. The upcoming Starship Flight 14 mission is set to be the first to deliver "V3" Starlink communication satellites directly into their operational orbit, following the successful Flight 13 test of V3 prototypes from Starbase, Texas on July 24. Two Falcon 9 launches are also scheduled: a Starlink mission from California's SLC-4E pad on August 11, and the Globalstar-2-R mission from SLC-40 in Florida on August 15.

Elon Musk has added to the optimism by pulling forward his long-term revenue forecast, now projecting annual sales could hit $1 trillion by 2030 — a year earlier than previously anticipated internally. The portfolio also includes a $843 million NASA contract from June 26 for the "U.S. Deorbit Vehicle," a specialized spacecraft designed to guide the International Space Station into a controlled Pacific Ocean descent at the end of its operational life in 2030.

Terafab and the Skeptics

Over the weekend, SpaceX and Tesla confirmed their joint Terafab project: a chip fabrication facility spanning roughly 100 million square feet in Grimes County, Texas. The first phase carries a price tag of $16.8 billion, with a target of more than one terawatt of computing power annually. Intel is slated to handle manufacturing using its 14A process, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott has already approved the associated tax agreements following approval from two affected school districts — formal signing remains before construction can begin.

Yet skepticism persists. Critics point to an investment requirement of at least $400 billion through 2028 to hit the targeted 20 gigawatts of AI computing capacity, alongside a valuation hovering around 17 times current-year revenue. The question of whether the rally has legs ultimately hinges on how quickly the billions poured into AI infrastructure translate into profitable growth.

Not every headline has been favorable. The Guardian reported that a decommissioned Falcon 9 upper stage — in orbit since 2025 and weighing roughly four tons — unintentionally struck the lunar surface at approximately 5,400 miles per hour. It remains an isolated incident that underscores the operational risks inherent to space technology, though it has done little to dent the broader growth narrative.

With another lock-up tranche — representing seven percent of shares — set to expire on August 20, followed by additional dates through December 8, the market's ability to absorb supply without derailing the rally will face further tests in the weeks ahead.