SpaceX's Post-IPO Gauntlet: A $60 Billion AI Bet Meets a Second Wave of Share Supply

SpaceX shares pull back 5.19% to €113.60 after a 28% rally, as investors weigh the upcoming lock-up expiry and the $60B Cursor acquisition.

The euphoria that carried SpaceX shares through a three-day, 28 percent surge has given way to a more measured tone on Tuesday, with the stock slipping 5.19 percent to €113.60 in German trading. The pullback follows a run fueled by an Argus Research price-target upgrade last Friday, and market participants see little in the way of fresh negative catalysts — the move reads more like profit-taking than a fundamental reassessment.

The consolidation arrives just as the company's second lock-up expiry looms on August 20, when roughly 320 million shares become eligible for trading. That overhang follows an earlier unlock of 911.5 million shares in early August that passed without the selling wave many had braced for — shares actually climbed meaningfully in its aftermath. With the stock now trading 41.58 percent below its June peak of €194.46, the market capitalization sits at approximately €1.52 trillion, a reminder of just how far the shares have traveled from their highs following the largest IPO in corporate history.

The Cursor Deal Takes Center Stage

Much of the recent optimism traces to SpaceX's planned $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI software firm Cursor, expected to close by the end of August. Morgan Stanley projects Cursor will generate $2.5 billion in revenue this year, scaling to $13 billion by 2027 and $33 billion by 2030, with recurring annual revenue reaching $8 billion by year-end. The bank values the AI business at $12 per share and maintains its $300 price target, while flagging a bull-case scenario of $600. Arete Research raised its target from $401 to $450 in the same breath.

The broader analyst community remains largely constructive. UBS's Hodulik reaffirmed a Buy with a $210 target, William Blair upgraded to Outperform, and of 31 analysts covering the stock, 24 recommend buying, five say hold, and two suggest selling. The average price target stands at $231.15 — a level that underscores the gap between Wall Street's optimism and the current share price.

Operating Momentum Beneath the Volatility

The fundamental picture has improved markedly over the past year. Second-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 92 percent to $7.81 billion, comfortably ahead of the $6.93 billion consensus. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from roughly $1 billion a year earlier, while the operating loss compressed from $970 million to $143 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.54 billion, up 191 percent year over year.

Starlink remains the growth engine: the satellite internet service now counts 12 million subscribers, double the figure from a year ago, with revenue of $4.3 billion and operating margins above 60 percent. But the standout performer is AI compute, where revenue surged 247 percent to $2.6 billion — a segment that management says drove nearly all of the company's growth. That expansion comes at a steep price: capital expenditures hit $18.37 billion in the quarter, with $15.8 billion directed at AI infrastructure alone.

Beyond Rockets: New Frontiers in Mobile and Chips

SpaceX's ambitions extend well beyond launch services and satellite broadband. The company recently secured $19.6 billion worth of spectrum from EchoStar, positioning itself to enter the terrestrial mobile market against Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile — a US market valued at roughly $600 billion — with service targeted for late 2027. A joint chip fabrication facility with Tesla, dubbed Terafab, is planned for Texas, with the first phase budgeted at $16.8 billion and the full project potentially reaching $119 billion.

CEO Elon Musk has reiterated the goal of reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a target that hinges on these ambitious bets continuing to pay off. The tension between that long-term vision and the company's current losses — not to mention the steady drip of newly tradable shares — is what keeps volatility elevated.

The Road Ahead

For investors, the coming weeks hinge on two questions: whether the August 20 lock-up expiry is digested as calmly as the first, and whether Starlink and AI compute can sustain their growth trajectory against the weight of massive capital requirements. Speculation about a potential Tesla merger, fueled by a clause in Musk's compensation package triggered by a change of control, adds another layer of uncertainty to an already eventful narrative.

The chasm between analyst targets north of $200 and the stock's current level reflects a market wrestling with how to price persistent losses and supply overhang against one of the most aggressive growth stories in recent memory. For now, the bulls and the bears both have their data points — and the next few weeks will test which side reads the tape more accurately.