SpaceX's Most Consequential Week Yet: First Earnings, a Lock-Up Flood and a Denied Tesla Merger
Published on 07/31/2026 at 18:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Investors in SpaceX are bracing for what Morgan Stanley describes as the most dangerous stretch since the company's June debut, with two catalysts landing within days of each other and a third overhang refusing to go away. The stock, already trading near its 52-week low, faces its first quarterly report as a public company on Tuesday, followed just two days later by the expiration of a lock-up period that could unleash more than 900 million shares onto the market.
The anxiety is visible in the price action. In German trading on Friday, the shares changed hands at €95.23, down 2.37 percent, having touched a fresh 52-week low of €94.05 earlier in the session. The relative strength index of 31.7 points to an oversold condition, while the 30-day decline stands at 29.51 percent. Across the Atlantic, the stock closed Thursday at €97.54, a 0.60 percent dip, leaving it just 3.60 percent above the July 28 trough. Annualized 30-day volatility of 65.19 percent underscores just how turbulent the post-IPO period has been.
A Test Flight That Failed to Reassure
The latest leg of the sell-off came despite what the company considers a successful test. SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket on Friday, with the upper stage executing a planned soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean and deploying Starlink satellites along the way. Management has long argued that Starship's ability to cut the cost per orbital flight by 99 percent is central to the company's long-term economics. Investors, however, remain unimpressed, with the stock falling more than four percent in US trading. The skepticism extends beyond SpaceX: Alphabet posted negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026, and concerns about the returns on massive AI infrastructure spending are rippling across the technology sector. For SpaceX, those worries are acute — 76 percent of the $10 billion in first-quarter 2026 capital expenditures went to AI infrastructure, following $20.7 billion in total capex for 2025.
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The Lock-Up Wave
The immediate focus, though, is the expiration of the lock-up period on August 6, when more than 930 million shares — worth roughly $100 billion — become eligible for trading. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas estimates that nearly four billion shares could be free to trade by January 2027. The bank, which maintains an "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target, warns that insider selling could add significant pressure, though it sees the stock as fundamentally undervalued, particularly given its AI business. CNBC's Jim Cramer has advised investors against building large positions before the lock-up expires.
The analyst community is deeply divided. Cantor Fitzgerald's Colin Canfield holds a Buy rating with a $246 target, while the broader consensus sits at 23 Buy ratings, six Holds and a single Sell, with an average price target of $239.04. Adding to the bearish camp's conviction, SpaceX is reportedly the most heavily shorted large-cap stock in the market, with short interest around 35 percent, according to NBC News.
A Denied Merger Story
Complicating matters further, a Wall Street Journal report Thursday suggested that Tesla advisers have explored spinning off, selling or closing the Shanghai plant — which produces more than half of Tesla's deliveries — to clear the regulatory path for a potential merger with SpaceX. The rationale, according to the report, is that SpaceX's role as a US military contractor would make a China presence in the combined entity problematic. Elon Musk dismissed the story as "absurd fake news" in one account and "fake news" in another, though he acknowledged growing overlap between the two companies during Tesla's late-July earnings call. JPMorgan analysts point to Chinese approval processes as a practical hurdle to any combination, while SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has reportedly noted that a merger could simplify Musk's life.
Pentagon Support and Regulatory Tailwinds
Amid the turbulence, the core business continues to secure government support. The US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract on Thursday for 18 Falcon 9 missions through the end of 2027, working out to roughly $89 million per launch. The launch segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue and $653 million in EBITDA in 2025. The Federal Aviation Administration, meanwhile, has proposed streamlining commercial launch approvals and suspending certain environmental requirements — a move that could accelerate future Starship campaigns, though it has drawn criticism from environmental groups.
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The Numbers Behind the Nervousness
The financial picture heading into Tuesday's report is mixed. For 2025, SpaceX posted revenue of $18.7 billion against a net loss of $4.9 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue reached $4.7 billion with a loss of $4.3 billion. Starlink remains profitable and grew roughly 50 percent year over year. The balance sheet, however, raises questions: capex is projected to climb from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by 2028, while debt could balloon from $41.7 billion to $218 billion over the same period.
With the earnings report, the lock-up expiration and the unresolved Tesla speculation all converging within days, the coming week will likely determine whether SpaceX can shake off its current weakness or sink further into oversold territory.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
