SpaceX's Lock-Up Overhang Meets a $60 Billion Cursor Deal: A Stock Caught Between Supply and Ambition
Published on 08/11/2026 at 20:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tension playing out in SpaceX's stock right now is a study in competing forces. On one side sits a torrent of newly tradable insider shares that has pushed the equity down 4.59 percent to €114.32 in Tuesday's session. On the other stands a strategic agenda so aggressive — a $60 billion acquisition, a $19.6 billion spectrum purchase, and a chip factory that could eventually cost $119 billion — that analysts keep ratcheting up their price targets despite the volatility.
The pullback comes just days after the shares had reclaimed their $135 IPO price, a recovery that saw the stock notch a 7.22 percent weekly gain. Tuesday's slide, which has the shares trading at €116.66 in some sessions before the deeper drop, looks less like a shift in sentiment and more like a market absorbing supply. The first major lock-up expiry since the listing unlocked 911.5 million insider shares — roughly $100 billion in value — late last week, and the market is still digesting that influx.
While markets digest supply shocks, workplace safety demands the same disciplined approach to managing risk. A free toolkit with 41 ready-to-use templates and checklists helps you document hazards and stay compliant without the paperwork burden. Download the free Risk Assessment Toolkit
A Quarter That Beat the Street on Every Front
What's anchoring the bullish case is the second-quarter report delivered on August 4. Revenue hit $7.81 billion, a 92 percent jump year over year and comfortably ahead of the $6.93 billion analysts had penciled in. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, far better than the 26-cent loss the Street expected. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 191 percent to $3.54 billion, while the company's operating loss shrank from $1.9 billion to $140 million.
The engine remains Starlink, which now counts 12 million subscribers — up 17 percent from the first quarter and more than double year over year. The satellite internet division generated $4.3 billion in revenue, growing 66 percent with operating margins above 60 percent. But the growth story has a new protagonist: the AI division, whose revenue surged 250 percent to $2.6 billion and, according to the company, accounted for nearly all of the overall revenue growth.
CFO Bret Johnsen told investors the company is on track to hit a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end, backed by an additional $6.7 billion in contracted cloud revenue spanning six months starting in October.
The cost of that ambition is steep. Capital expenditures sextupled to $18.37 billion in the quarter, with $15.83 billion plowed into AI infrastructure — well above the $13.1 billion expected. The balance sheet shows the strain and the cushion: cash reserves grew to $93.5 billion, while debt and finance leases rose to $36.8 billion.
The Cursor Deal and a Terrestrial Ambition
SpaceX's AI push extends beyond infrastructure. The company has agreed to acquire Cursor, the software developer, in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. Morgan Stanley notes that more than 60 percent of Fortune 500 companies already use Cursor, which generates over $1 billion in annualized revenue. The bank projects that figure to reach $2.5 billion this year, $13 billion by 2027, and $33 billion by 2030. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.
The terrestrial ambitions don't stop there. SpaceX paid $19.6 billion for EchoStar's spectrum licenses, positioning itself to enter the U.S. mobile market against Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile by the end of 2027 — a market worth roughly $600 billion. And in partnership with Tesla, the company is planning Terafab, a Texas chip plant whose first phase carries a $16.8 billion price tag, with the full project potentially reaching $119 billion.
Analysts See Through the Noise
Wall Street remains firmly constructive. Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating with a $300 price target and a bull case of $600, arguing the AI business alone is worth about $12 per share. Argus Research upgraded the stock to Buy with a $160 target, citing the rapid payback on AI infrastructure investments given robust compute capacity growth.
The lock-up calendar, however, keeps the risk elevated. Thursday's unlock was just the opening tranche: another 319 million shares become tradable on August 20, followed by roughly 700 million in September and a similar amount in October. With 30-day volatility already at 88.40 percent, the stair-stepped supply could keep swings wide for weeks.
Launches Continue, and a Tesla Question Lingers
Operationally, the company shows no sign of slowing. A Falcon 9 launched the Starlink 10-19 mission from Cape Canaveral on Tuesday — the 72nd Starlink flight of 2026 — following a Saturday mission that marked the 50th launch from California this year. The Nvidia partnership is advancing "Space Compute" hardware for on-satellite AI models, including the Starmind AI1 payload with Nvidia Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. Musk has said future AI data centers will use Nvidia chips exclusively, targeting over two gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end and roughly ten gigawatts by the end of 2027.
One shareholder, Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III, has publicly stated he's liquidating his entire position to lock in gains. He may not be alone — the lock-up expiries have created a steady pipeline of potential sellers. Adding to the speculative mix is chatter about a possible Tesla merger, fueled by a clause in Musk's compensation package that would trigger on a change of control.
For now, the stock's trajectory hinges on whether earnings momentum can outrun the supply overhang. The quarter gave bulls ample ammunition; the coming months will test whether that's enough.
