SpaceX's Lock-Up Flood Arrives With Analysts Dragging the Stock in Opposite Directions

SpaceX shares rise despite lock-up expiry as $18.4B capex splits analysts; JPMorgan bullish, Morningstar bearish.

The largest share-release event in SpaceX's short public history has arrived at an awkward moment. Roughly 911.5 million shares — worth around $116 billion at current prices and representing about eight percent of the company's market capitalization — became freely tradable on Thursday as the first post-IPO lock-up period expired. The float jumps from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares, a dramatic expansion of supply that would normally spook the market.

So far, the anticipated selling pressure hasn't materialized. The stock was trading at €96.06 in Frankfurt on Thursday, up 2.78 percent on the day, after a bruising session on Wednesday that saw the shares shed 14 percent in the wake of the company's eye-popping capital expenditure figures. The monthly picture remains ugly, though: the stock is still down 26.66 percent over the past 30 days, and it sits roughly 49.70 percent below its 52-week high.

A $18.4 Billion Spending Splurge Splits Wall Street

The catalyst for the recent volatility was SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company, delivered on Tuesday. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 came in at $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year — a headline number that impressed. But the bottom line told a different story: a net loss of $541 million, driven by capital expenditures that exploded to $18.4 billion from just $2.8 billion in the year-ago quarter. The spending is aimed at AI infrastructure and Starship development, according to Bloomberg.

That divergence has produced a stark split among analysts. JPMorgan raised its price target from $225 to $240 on Thursday, keeping an Overweight rating and citing SpaceX's "extreme vertical integration" and the potential for $100 billion in AI-related revenue by 2027. Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy recommendation with a $235 target the same day. Wells Fargo, by contrast, cut its target from $230 to $215 on Wednesday, pointing to the nearly sixfold increase in investment spending as a reason for caution.

Adding to the AI narrative is a blockbuster acquisition: SpaceX has agreed to buy AI startup Cursor for $60 billion, a move designed to bolster its enterprise AI capabilities. The combination of record revenue, exploding costs, and a mega-deal has become the central debate among analysts, with Morningstar offering the most bearish take — a fair value estimate of just $62, based on doubts about Starship's reusability and the viability of orbital data centers.

Starship Progress and a Military Wake-Up Call

Operationally, the company continues to push forward. CEO Elon Musk confirmed during the earnings call that the next Starship test flight is scheduled for late August, marking the first attempt to deploy payload into orbit and catch the upper stage at the launch tower. The previous test in late July ended with a soft water landing in the Indian Ocean, with Musk declaring the heat shield issue resolved.

The military side of the business is seeing both wins and warning signs. The US Space Force awarded $615 million in contracts to Rocket Lab, Systems Technology Research, and an unnamed third provider for space surveillance satellites — explicitly aimed at reducing dependence on SpaceX. Separately, the Department of Defense's space arm handed out a $2.29 billion contract to accelerate a satellite-based "backbone" communications network. For investors, the Space Force's diversification push is a reminder that even in its core domain, the government is seeking alternatives to the market leader.

Regulatory Tailwinds and a Curious Photo Op

There's also movement on the regulatory front. The FAA proposed a rule in late July that would ease certain environmental requirements — including parts of NEPA — for launch and reentry licensing. The public comment period runs through the end of August, and streamlined approvals could accelerate SpaceX's already aggressive launch cadence.

In a lighter footnote, South Korea's Korea Aerospace Research Institute confirmed that its Danuri lunar orbiter photographed the impact site of a Falcon 9 upper stage near the Einstein crater on Wednesday. And on the launch side, a Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying the BlueBird 11-13 mission for AST SpaceMobile, with the first stage completing its 30th successful landing.

The Starlink business, meanwhile, continues to be the financial engine: connectivity revenue hit $4.3 billion in the quarter, with twelve million active subscribers now on the network.

For now, the market seems to be treating the lock-up expiry as a buying opportunity rather than an exit sign. But with the stock still nursing deep wounds from its recent sell-off and analysts divided over whether the AI spending spree is visionary or reckless, the next few weeks will test whether the shares can hold their ground with a vastly larger float in circulation.