SpaceX's Lock-Up Expiry Unleashes $100 Billion Share Flood as Analysts Battle Over Valuation

SpaceX's $100B lock-up expiry nearly doubles free float, sparking resilient trading and a wide analyst target range from $62 to $300.

The trading floor at SpaceX is bracing for a historic shift in its share structure. Roughly 911.5 million shares, valued at approximately $100 billion, became freely tradable on Thursday as the company's first major lock-up period expired — the largest such release since its June 2026 IPO. The move nearly doubles the free float to 1.55 billion shares, swelling from 639 million previously.

The market's initial reaction has been surprisingly resilient. The stock traded at €97.82 on Thursday, up 4.67 percent from the prior session, after closing Wednesday at €93.46. That follows a Wednesday close of €93.46, with the shares still sitting roughly half below their 52-week high — a gap of 49.70 percent that underscores the steep correction since the June peak. The expanded float could inject fresh volatility into the stock in the weeks ahead, traders say.

Wall Street's Verdict Splits Three Ways

The lock-up release has exposed a deep fault line among analysts. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed his $300 price target on Thursday, framing the share release as a buying opportunity. Piper Sandler struck a more cautious tone, trimming its target from $156 to $140 with a Neutral rating, citing planned capital expenditures of $65 billion for 2027 and the overhang of a larger float. Mizuho, meanwhile, issued a Buy recommendation with a $200 target following the company's first quarterly report.

The picture grows murkier still with the latest analyst moves. JPMorgan lifted its price target from $225 to $240 on Tuesday, maintaining an Overweight stance and pointing to SpaceX's "extreme vertical integration" and the potential for up to $100 billion in AI-related revenue by 2027. Wells Fargo cut its target from $230 to $215 the same day but held its Overweight rating, expressing caution about the company's nearly sixfold increase in investment spending. At the far end of the spectrum sits Morningstar, whose valuation model assigns a fair value of just $62, built on skepticism about Starship's reusability and the viability of orbital data centers.

The target range — from $62 to $300 — tells investors everything they need to know about the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX's newer business lines. Rather than anchoring on any single price target, the divergence itself is the signal.

A Quarter That Beat Expectations — at a Cost

The debate over valuation traces back to the company's first earnings report since going public, released Tuesday. Revenue climbed to $7.81 billion, a 92 percent jump year over year. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or $0.09 per share — far better than the $1.1 billion loss analysts had projected. Starlink Connectivity generated $4.3 billion in revenue, up 66 percent, with 12 million paying subscribers now on the network. The company's AI division, however, posted a $1.3 billion loss.

But the headline numbers mask a heavy spending burden. Operating losses stood at $143 million for the quarter, driven by $18.37 billion in capital expenditures flowing into AI infrastructure and Starlink expansion. The growth engine is running hot — but it's burning fuel at an equally impressive rate.

Chips, Rockets, and a Moon Crash

Thursday brought a second major announcement: SpaceX unveiled plans for "Terafab," a vertically integrated semiconductor factory in Grimes County, Texas, backed by $16.8 billion in investment. The Texas Enterprise Fund is contributing a $30 million grant to support the project.

Operationally, the company shows no signs of slowing. A Falcon 9 launched three BlueBird satellites for AST SpaceMobile on Tuesday — the 91st launch of the year. CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Starship's 14th test flight is slated for late August, aiming for the first orbital deployment of Starlink-V3 satellites and another attempt to catch the booster at the launch tower. The Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station, carrying four astronauts, is scheduled for September 12.

Even the moon got involved. A spent Falcon 9 upper stage from a 2024 mission crashed into the lunar surface near the Einstein crater on Wednesday, traveling at roughly 8,700 kilometers per hour. The European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope captured the impact.

Adding to the regulatory tailwinds, the FAA proposed a rule in late July that would streamline environmental reviews under 13 laws for commercial rocket launches and landings, with the public comment period running through the end of August. For SpaceX, faster permitting could ease future approval bottlenecks.

The picture that emerges is one of a company firing on all cylinders — record revenue, expanding infrastructure, and a packed launch manifest — yet facing a historic supply of shares hitting the market at a time when its valuation has rarely been more contested.