SpaceX's First Earnings Report Arrives Amid a Wall Street Standoff

SpaceX reports as bulls see $255, bears $75; stock down 48% from peak, lock-up expiry looms Aug 6.

When SpaceX files its inaugural quarterly report as a public company after Tuesday's closing bell, it will do so with the widest analyst disagreement the Street has seen in years. The bull case calls for a share price of $255. The bear case? Just $75. In between sits a stock that has already shed roughly half its value since its June debut.

The equity currently trades at €100.98, up 1.69 percent on the day — a modest bounce that does little to mask the damage done. Just this Monday, the shares touched a fresh 52-week low of €91.04. From the post-IPO record of €194.46, the stock remains 48 percent in the red.

A House Divided

Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its buy rating in early August with a $255 price target. Analyst Edison Yu argues that the core business alone — rocket launches plus the Starlink satellite internet operation — is worth as much as $1.35 trillion, nearly matching the company's entire current market capitalization of roughly €1.239 trillion. By that math, the market is effectively assigning zero value to SpaceX's AI and technology divisions, a discount Yu considers far too punitive.

Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities sees it very differently. Initiating coverage with a sell rating and a $75 target — well below current levels — Thum warns that investors are dramatically overestimating the AI opportunity. His numbers are stark: $3.2 billion in AI revenue projected for 2025, against an operating loss of $6.4 billion. He expects cumulative negative free cash flow of around $90 billion by 2030, driven almost entirely by infrastructure buildout costs.

The broader consensus sits somewhere in between. Of the 34 analysts covering the stock, 27 say buy, six say hold, and just one says sell. The average price target is $236.71, but individual targets range wildly from $62 to $800. Morgan Stanley's $300 target implies a valuation of nearly $4 trillion.

A Double Test in Four Days

The earnings report lands just two days before a critical deadline: on August 6, the first major lock-up period expires, freeing up to 911.5 million pre-IPO shares — held by early investors and employees — for trading. That's more than a doubling of the freely tradable float, and short sellers are already positioning for the potential oversupply.

The stock has fallen 29.29 percent over the past 30 days and sits just 9.07 percent above its August 3 low. The relative strength index at 37.1 suggests the shares are approaching oversold territory, though technical indicators offer little comfort with volatility running at an annualized rate near 58 percent.

Starlink Carries the Weight

The fundamental picture is one of operational momentum colliding with financial reality. Starlink accounts for 61 percent of 2025 revenue and stands as the company's only profitable segment. The launch business remains dominant, but the newer AI division is burning through capital at a ferocious clip.

Management has been aggressive in diversifying: multi-billion-dollar monthly GPU contracts with Google and Anthropic, plus an all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor valued at roughly $60 billion. Critics counter that a $1.5 trillion valuation resting primarily on Starlink's shoulders leaves little room for error elsewhere.

On the engineering front, progress continues. The Starship system completed its 13th test flight on July 24, deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit and capturing high-resolution imagery of its heat shield during reentry. Impressive technically — but whether such milestones translate into stable financials remains the open question.

What the Market Wants to Hear

For the second quarter, analysts expect revenue between $6.7 billion and $6.9 billion, with a net loss on the bottom line. The focus will be on Starlink subscriber growth, operating margins, and capital expenditure plans for both Starship and AI infrastructure.

Investors will also be listening closely for management commentary on Starship commercialization timelines and the path to profitability for the newly integrated AI operations. With the lock-up expiry looming just 48 hours after the report, traders are bracing for what could be a volatile stretch — the first genuine test of whether SpaceX's operational achievements can justify the valuation the market has assigned them.