SpaceX's August Gauntlet: Record Launch Tempo, a $60 Billion AI Bet, and a Lock-Up Calendar That Won't Quit

SpaceX shares dip 1.8% despite record launches as lock-up unlocks add supply; Cursor acquisition lifts revenue forecasts, but valuation debate rages.

The arithmetic of SpaceX's current market moment is enough to give any investor whiplash. The company just pulled off two Falcon 9 launches within 38.5 minutes on August 15 — a new internal record — yet the stock closed the following Tuesday at €124.22, down 1.8% on the day and an identical 1.8% lower on the week. Over a 30-day stretch, however, the picture flips entirely: shares are up 18%, though still sitting roughly 36% below the June peak of €194.46.

That disconnect between operational brilliance and share-price behavior has a name, and it's spelled out on the lock-up calendar.

The Unlock Overhang Keeps Growing

The market's jitters trace back to a series of share-release deadlines that began in early August and stretch well into the autumn. On August 6, roughly 912 million shares — worth nearly $123 billion at prevailing prices — became tradable, a tranche larger than the entire previously available float. That event alone was blamed for much of the recent softness. Now the next wave arrives August 20, when another 319 million shares come unlocked, followed by tranches of over 700 million and roughly 650 million shares slated for September and October respectively.

Each new release expands the tradable supply, and the cumulative effect has been a persistent bid-ask on sentiment. The secondary article notes the stock slipped 2.3% to €123.58 on the day it covered, underscoring just how sensitive the tape has become to supply dynamics.

A $60 Billion Cursor Shakes Up the Forecasts

Amid the supply pressure, SpaceX closed its acquisition of Anysphere — parent of the AI coding platform Cursor — on August 14, paying $60 billion in stock. Cursor shareholders receive roughly 389 million SpaceX shares in exchange, a deal that has analysts redrawing their models.

Deutsche Bank lifted its 2027 revenue projection to $115 billion from $97 billion, keeping a Buy rating and a $235 price target. JPMorgan sees even more upside at $240, citing second-quarter revenue that nearly doubled year over year and AI-segment growth of 250%. Bernstein's Doug Harned goes to $248 but flags a crucial dependency: the AI ambitions hinge on full reusability of the Starship system.

Not everyone is buying the story. Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum rates the stock a Sell with a 12-month target of just $75, while former Fidelity manager George Noble calls SpaceX one of the best short candidates on the market, arguing fair value is closer to $30. Noble specifically attacks the stock's index inclusion, describing it as a "manufactured squeeze." The consensus across 31 tracked firms lands near $232, though the range — from $75 to $800 — tells you everything about the valuation debate.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

The fundamental picture that bulls point to is genuinely strong. Second-quarter revenue hit $7.81 billion, blowing past the $6.93 billion analyst consensus and representing 92% growth over the prior year's $4.1 billion. The net loss per share came in at just 9 cents versus an expected 26-cent deficit. CFO Bret Johnsen says the company is on track to hit a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end, with $6.7 billion in cloud-service revenue already contracted over a six-month period starting in October.

The counterweight is capital expenditure. Q2 capex reached $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion of that funneled into the AI segment alone. Annualized, that's $73.5 billion — well above the $48.7 billion analysts had penciled in. Elon Musk has pledged to equip SpaceX's AI data centers exclusively with Nvidia chips, targeting over two gigawatts of compute capacity by end-2026 and roughly ten gigawatts by end-2027. A joint satellite-based AI payload called "Starmind AI1," using Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, is also in the works, alongside a new chip factory — Terafab — in Grimes County, Texas, backed by an initial $16.8 billion investment from Tesla and SpaceX. The facility promises over 100 million square feet of manufacturing space and at least 3,000 jobs across Grimes and Brazos counties.

Musk has also pulled forward the trillion-dollar revenue target to 2030, a year ahead of the original schedule.

Who's Buying While Others Sell

Institutional disclosures paint a picture of conviction at the top. Harvard Management Company reported holding $2.2 billion in SpaceX stock — more than half of the endowment's entire US equity portfolio. Nvidia has disclosed a stake worth around $21 billion and separately committed over $100 billion to AI initiatives involving SpaceX over the next two years. Among hedge funds, D1 Capital stands out with more than 126 million shares.

Argus, meanwhile, upgraded the stock to Buy in early August with a $160 target, arguing the AI infrastructure spending will amortize faster than the market fears — even if the capex bill came in higher than expected.

For now, the tension is structural: a company executing at record speed in orbit and in the data center, facing a share supply that keeps expanding just as the bull-bear spread reaches its widest point yet. The next unlock date is August 20. The next earnings report will show whether the capex bet is paying off. Between now and then, the tape will likely keep oscillating between the $75 bears and the $800 bulls — with the truth somewhere in the $232 middle.