SpaceX's $60 Billion Cursor Gambit Nears Finish Line as Shares Climb Back Above IPO Price

SpaceX shares top $135 IPO price amid $60B Cursor deal nearing approval, strong Q2 revenue, and Nvidia partnership, with Argus upgrading to Buy.

The confluence of a landmark acquisition and a resurgent share price has put SpaceX in an unusually favorable spotlight. With the $60 billion all-stock takeover of AI coding startup Cursor reportedly on the verge of regulatory clearance, and the stock reclaiming its 135 US-dollar IPO price on Monday, investors are digesting a pivotal week for the company's dual identity as both a space pioneer and an AI heavyweight.

The Cursor Deal: A Countdown to Closure

The Information reported Friday, citing an internal all-hands meeting at Cursor, that only final regulatory approvals stand between the two companies and a completed transaction. A closing by the end of August is now viewed as realistic, a remarkably swift timeline for a deal of this magnitude.

The agreement, struck in mid-June, carries notable financial guardrails. SpaceX faces a 10 billion dollar reverse-termination fee, while a regulatory failure would trigger a 4 billion dollar penalty. Cursor was valued at 29 billion dollars at the time of the agreement, with parallel discussions over a funding round at a 50 billion dollar valuation.

Should the deal close, the Cursor brand is slated to be phased out. New products — including an unreleased general-purpose agent internally codenamed "Sand" — will instead be marketed under the Grok banner. Cursor's workforce will migrate to SpaceX's Slack and systems environment following completion.

A Volatile Path Back to the IPO Price

Monday's close of 119.82 euros, up 4.06 percent, marked the first time the stock has traded back above its 135 US-dollar IPO price since a turbulent debut. The recovery, however, has been anything but linear.

The second-quarter earnings release initially sent shares down 7 to 8 percent in after-hours trading, according to CNBC and Reuters. The culprit was not operational weakness but the sheer scale of capital expenditure: 18.37 billion US dollars in investment outlays raised questions about cost discipline. The subsequent announcement of a partnership with Nvidia in datacenter chips helped contextualize the spending, and CEO Elon Musk's decision to pull forward the trillion-dollar annual revenue target from 2031 to 2030 provided additional ballast.

The expiration of the insider lock-up period last Thursday proved to be a turning point rather than a headwind. The release of over 900 million shares — typically a supply overhang — instead fueled a 20.4 percent rally. Argus Research added momentum Friday by upgrading the stock from Hold to Buy with a 160 dollar price target, citing rapid amortization of AI infrastructure investments.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

The earnings report that initially spooked the market contained figures that, on closer inspection, told a story of accelerating growth. Second-quarter revenue reached 7.8 billion US dollars, up 92 percent from the 4.1 billion US dollars reported a year earlier and comfortably ahead of the 6.9 billion US dollar consensus estimate. The per-share loss of 9 US cents was far better than the 26-cent loss analysts had projected, though the net loss still totaled 541 million US dollars.

Argus projects revenue growth exceeding 100 percent in 2026, with another doubling expected in 2027. The firm's analyst Steve Silver acknowledged that investment levels have run above expectations but argued the payoff is arriving faster than anticipated.

Starship and Starlink: The Core Business Grinds On

While the AI narrative dominates headlines, the space division continues its methodical cadence. Starship Flight 14 is tentatively scheduled for late August, pending regulatory approval, with Musk providing the timeframe during the late-July earnings call. The mission aims to achieve a first-ever catch attempt of the upper stage at the launch tower and deploy operational payloads into orbit for the first time.

Construction of the "Gigabay" manufacturing facilities in Florida and Texas remains on track for year-end completion. The launch schedule shows no signs of slackening: Tuesday's Starlink mission 10-19 will mark the 72nd Starlink launch of the year and the 93rd Falcon 9 flight of 2026, after a one-day delay from Monday.

A Two-Sided Picture for Investors

The stock's behavior reflects the competing forces at play. On a weekly basis, shares have gained 10.13 percent, and the recovery from the early-August 52-week low stands at approximately 31.6 percent. Yet the annualized volatility of roughly 90 percent — a 30-day figure of 89.79 percent — underscores how sharply the pendulum can swing in either direction.

The reclamation of the IPO price carries psychological significance, but it does not resolve the fundamental debate over the company's aggressive investment posture. With the Cursor deal approaching its final regulatory hurdle and Starship's next flight on the horizon, the coming weeks will test whether the market's newfound confidence can withstand the next data point — in either direction.