SpaceX Faces Another Lockup Test as Share Supply Wave Collides With Bullish Analyst Calls

SpaceX's third post-IPO share unlock of ~319M shares hit the market; stock fell 4% to €126.62, with more supply ahead.

The third tranche of SpaceX's post-IPO share unlock hit the market on Wednesday, with roughly 319 million Class A shares — about 7 percent of the remaining restricted stock — becoming tradable. The stock slipped 4 percent to €126.62 in European trading, though the decline was less severe than the 4.2 percent drop reported in some U.S. quotes, where the shares changed hands around $126.40.

Wednesday's release was valued at approximately $49 billion based on Tuesday's closing price of $153.47. It marks the latest installment in a staggered lockup schedule outlined in the company's June prospectus, and more supply is already on the horizon.

A Calendar Full of Unlocks

The pipeline of share releases remains heavy. Thursday brings another 59.1 million shares from affiliates under Rule 144, followed by three additional tranches of 328.4 million shares each on September 24, October 9, and October 24. Beyond that, roughly 28 percent of the company's shares — approximately 1.3 billion — are slated to become tradable after the third-quarter earnings report. The full lockup period doesn't expire until December 8, 2026.

The market has seen this movie before, though the endings have varied. The first major unlock in early August, which freed around 912 million shares, paradoxically sent the stock up more than 6 percent. A second release of roughly 319 million shares in late August briefly pushed the price below its IPO level before recovering. Wednesday's action appears to follow the more recent pattern: insider selling pressure meeting persistent institutional demand.

That tug-of-war is evident in the ownership picture. High-profile investors including David Tepper and Philippe Laffont built positions during the second quarter, while hedge funds Coatue and BlueCrest now hold SpaceX as a significant portfolio component. The Virginia Retirement Systems also reported adding to its stake. These buyers stand in direct opposition to the short-term supply overhang, which helps explain the sharp volatility on unlock days.

Analyst Optimism Persists Despite Supply Concerns

Wall Street's enthusiasm hasn't wavered. Pivotal Research's Jeffrey Wlodarczak initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $220 price target, arguing that if SpaceX can achieve 20 to 50 reuses of its Starship boosters with fast, inexpensive maintenance, a valuation of roughly $2 trillion would be justified. The firm's assessment of the stock's upside potential was echoed by Oppenheimer, which raised its price target from $250 to $280.

The consensus view remains constructive: according to LSEG data, 29 of 37 analysts rate the shares a buy or strong buy, with average price targets clustering between $221 and $227. The stock's annualized 30-day volatility of 86 percent, however, underscores that this remains a vehicle for investors comfortable with pronounced swings.

Fundamentals Provide the Counterweight

The operational story supports much of the optimism. Second-quarter revenue climbed about 92 percent year over year to $7.81 billion, driven in part by Starlink, which contributed $4.0 billion in revenue and $1.6 billion in operating income. The per-share loss of $0.09 came in well below analyst expectations. The company is also pouring capital into its AI division, a growth bet that raises questions about how much cash the conglomerate can allocate alongside its rocket and satellite operations.

On the Starship front, SpaceX has conducted 13 test flights, eight of them successful, with reuse of the upper stage still unproven. The 14th test flight of the heavy-lift vehicle is expected next week. The company says it has invested at least $15 billion in the Starship program and is planning a spaceport in Louisiana with a projected cost of at least $100 billion.

For investors, the near-term picture is dominated by the unlock calendar and the technical selling pressure it generates. Thursday's release bears watching, as do the larger tranches in September and October. But the fundamental case — strong revenue growth, analyst support, and the potential economics of a reusable Starship — remains largely intact, suggesting the current dip may once again prove temporary if the pattern from earlier unlocks holds.