SpaceX Draws Two Verdicts From One Trading Week: A Red Tape Cleared, a Bill Still Coming

Two sessions, two declines, one question. SpaceX fell 9.0% in a single day and was down another 7.7% today, caught in the wider technology selloff that Reuters has linked to mounting costs for AI infrastructure and uncertain returns. But the tape tells only half the story. While the stock slid, federal regulators handed the company's satellite unit a concrete win — and Wall Street raised its price target.

The distinction matters. A rough trading session is not a verdict on a business. It does, however, reveal which question investors are asking most loudly. At SpaceX, rapid revenue growth and enormous capital spending plans are colliding, and when the market turns more critical of future outlays, that tension takes center stage.

The Bill Behind the Growth

The company's Tuesday results put third-quarter 2026 capital expenditure at $19.593 billion, with management guiding to $35 billion–$40 billion in the closing quarter. That is no footnote. The investment plan belongs at the center of any valuation because it forces the gaze beyond the current income statement. How much SpaceX earns is only half the question; what the next phase of expansion consumes is the other half. A reported profit does not answer it.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $14.575 billion, up 161% year over year, alongside a net profit of $4.4 billion. AI revenue, according to company figures, reached $7.56 billion — a striking turnaround from a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. Those numbers argue against dismissing the AI operations as mere future promise, yet they fall short of proving that the economics of further expansion are settled. Strong growth and heavy spending can coexist with a skeptical market reaction; reading only one side of that ledger shortchanges the story.

A License Granted, a Deal Still Pending

The more tangible company-specific progress came from Washington. The FCC yesterday approved the acquisition of additional licenses from Tristar by SpaceX subsidiary Starlink Spectrum Holdings — three licenses totaling 15 MHz — and granted exceptions for satellite use. A regulatory green light carries a different weight than an expansion intention: it removes a hurdle and permits the approved use. Extrapolating a specific revenue contribution from it would still be premature.

Separately, SpaceX has agreed to buy a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio from Grain Management, covering up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum, for roughly $8 billion. That transaction, intended to support Starlink Mobile, is expected to close in the first half of 2027 and remains subject to regulatory and other customary conditions, including FCC approval. The distinction is decisive: the Tristar approval is in hand, the Grain purchase is not. Treating both as fully secured expansion would overstate the position — just as ignoring the approved rights amid broad AI anxiety would understate it.

The merger question deserves similar caution. According to the Associated Press, Elon Musk said Tuesday that both SpaceX and Tesla had formed committees of independent board members to discuss a possible combination, while stressing the uncertainty of any deal. No merger agreement has been announced.

One Week, Two Signals

Wednesday brought a counterweight to the weak sessions: TD Cowen lifted its price target to $224 from $200 and kept its buy rating. That is a counterpoint to the selloff, not a resolution of the underlying trade-off.

Neither blanket AI enthusiasm nor blanket skepticism holds up. SpaceX can point to powerful growth, a swing to profit and a cleared regulatory step. The yardstick that still matters most is what durable earnings the next buildout generates. The license strengthens the operating picture; it does not replace the investment math.