SpaceX Chases $100 Billion Revenue Run-Rate as Nasdaq 100 Reweighting Fuels Passive Demand

SpaceX aims for a $100 billion revenue run-rate, backed by AI compute deals and a Nasdaq 100 weighting increase that may draw up to $22 billion in passive inflows.

SpaceX has set its sights on a revenue run-rate of 100 billion US dollars by the end of the current fiscal year, a target that has begun drawing heightened attention across financial markets. The goal, laid out by chief executive Elon Musk and finance chief Brett Johnson, leans heavily on the company's artificial intelligence division for momentum.

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu considers the milestone well within reach, calling the 100 billion dollar threshold highly likely to be hit. The company already posted total revenue of 7.8 billion US dollars in the second quarter.

That AI business is being propelled by the integration of xAI alongside robust demand for high-performance cloud capacity. SpaceX is steadily rolling out specialized computing resources for training large AI models, with customers of its monthly-booked compute ranging from major technology corporations to government organizations.

Pentagon Contract and Private AI Deals Anchor the Order Book

Among the agreements already signed, a contract with the US Department of Defense stands out. Private AI developers have also reserved substantial capacity: Anthropic locked in compute time worth 1.25 billion US dollars per month, while Google is committing 920 million US dollars monthly.

Operational expansion is being matched by support from capital flows in the financial markets. The scheduled quarterly adjustment of the Nasdaq 100 took effect this Monday, lifting SpaceX's weighting in the benchmark index from 1.28 percent to 2.82 percent.

Because of that methodological change, passively managed index funds must realign their holdings. Market observers estimate automatic demand from passive funds in the range of 15.5 billion to 22 billion US dollars as portfolios are adjusted. JPMorgan analysts put the passive inflows at roughly 15.5 billion US dollars. These shifts follow purely mechanical index rules and do not represent a corporate action by the space company.

In Monday's session the stock gained 1.9 percent to stand at 135.56 euros. In European trading on Friday, the shares closed at 132.70 euros, leaving the stock 14 percent above its 50-day average of 116.71 euros. The quotation had benefited from solid demand ahead of the index adjustment taking effect.

Wall Street Sees Room for a Higher Valuation

Leading industry observers view the combination of AI infrastructure and spaceflight positively. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley reiterated his "Buy" rating and a price target of 300 US dollars. In the analyst's view, the revenue potential of computing capacity in space and on the ground is not yet adequately reflected in the current share price.

At the same time, the core business in government space transport remains reliably anchored. NASA granted a contract modification worth 946 million US dollars last Friday for three additional crewed missions to the ISS. The agency expanded its existing arrangement for transporting personnel to the International Space Station by three more flights, covering missions Crew-15 through Crew-17. That lifts the total volume of the program to 5.92 billion US dollars.

The contract runs through 2030, securing dependable utilization for years to come. The commercial side of the business is gaining profile as well. On September 15, the Starfall division agreed a cooperation with Space Cargo. As chief executive Nicolas Gaume announced, the company thereby wins its first European customer for that service.

Satellite Services Expand Abroad

Satellite communications are also growing internationally. On September 10, the United Kingdom disclosed spending of nearly 40 million US dollars on such services. With roughly 1,000 installed terminals for the Starshield network, the country becomes the first state outside the United States to officially adopt the system.

At a Goldman Sachs industry conference, the company sketched out further growth areas. Beyond building out artificial intelligence infrastructure, Starlink now covers more than 170 countries. The group is also targeting a direct 5G mobile service for conventional devices in the first half of 2028.

The heavy-lift Starship system remains at the center of technological development, though the project stays tied to regulatory approvals. The flight's focus is reaching Earth orbit and deploying the first Starlink V3 satellites.