SpaceX Balances Routine Crew Flights Against a Starship Bet on Orbital Computing

NASA and SpaceX cleared Crew-13 for a Thursday Falcon 9 launch; analysts weigh Starship's AI satellite plans against steady government revenue.

NASA and SpaceX have cleared the Crew-13 mission for launch, with a Falcon 9 scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral at 11:10 a.m. local time on Thursday. Four crew members are set to begin a roughly six-month research stint aboard the International Space Station.

The capsule should dock with the station after just under eight hours of flight — which would mark the fastest transit of a US vehicle to the ISS to date. The green light followed SpaceX's repair of a valve issue in the propulsion system, the problem that had pushed the flight from its original mid-September slot. Forecasters at the launch site put the odds of favorable conditions at 55 percent ahead of the attempt.

Commanding the four-person crew is NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, joined by NASA's Luke Delaney, Joshua Kutryk of the Canadian Space Agency and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov.

Government Work as the Financial Backbone

The manned flight underscores SpaceX's standing as the US government's primary partner for orbital transport. Institutional contracts keep the Falcon fleet consistently utilized and generate dependable revenue streams separate from the commercial satellite business. Long-term agreements with the US armed forces add further visibility to the company's finances for coming fiscal years.

That government business functions as the company's safety net. The market's attention, though, has shifted well beyond resupply runs to an aging space station.

A Valuation Debate That Has Moved Past Rockets

Media reports indicate SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell has outlined plans to deploy Starship from 2027 to carry satellites designed for artificial intelligence data processing into orbit. The shift in the business narrative is notable: space companies were long valued like specialized defense or aerospace suppliers. If massive computing capacity and AI workloads are to run directly in orbit, the provider's role changes fundamentally — from pure transport contractor to system-critical infrastructure operator for the global data economy.

Whether low Earth orbit genuinely becomes the technology sector's next growth frontier is the open question. On the capital markets, the stock is drawing notice. In premarket trading the shares changed hands at EUR 134.16, a modest gain of 0.6 percent on the day. The stock trades at EUR 133.90, which puts it 11 percent above its 50-day moving average of EUR 120.42.

A single Starship can carry up to 60 Starlink V3 satellites — roughly twenty times the capacity of a Falcon 9. Following the system's first orbital test flight, in which 26 Starlink satellites were deployed despite the failure of one engine during ascent and the mission generated revenue for the first time, several research houses adjusted their models.

On September 28, CLSA initiated coverage of SpaceX with a buy rating and an "Outperform" vote, setting a price target of $250.00. Moffett Nathanson had already raised its target to $142 from $131 on September 14. TD Cowen also began monitoring the stock with a buy recommendation, pointing to new revenue drivers from space-based services, while Needham reiterated its positive view with a buy rating.

Starship's Next Step

The routine operation is accompanied by development progress on the next-generation launch system. On Monday, the heavy vehicle reached Earth orbit for the first time, releasing 26 Starlink V3 satellites, though an engine failure forced an early return. The new satellite generation is intended to boost the network's transmission capacity dramatically compared with its predecessors.

For investors, the interplay between proven transport infrastructure and the generational technology shift is the real yardstick. Falcon rockets deliver predictable operating cash flows, while the Starship program will determine future cost efficiency as the satellite network expands worldwide. SpaceX now sits at the intersection of two megatrends — the commercialization of near-Earth space and the world's insatiable appetite for computing power.