SK Hynix Holds Goldman's Buy Rating as Samsung Closes In and CXMT Ramps Up

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on SK Hynix with a 3,500,000 KRW target, citing tight HBM supply even as Samsung and CXMT raise competitive pressure.

Goldman Sachs is sticking with its bullish call on SK Hynix, even as the memory chipmaker confronts a tightening competitive squeeze on two fronts. Analyst Giu Lee reiterated a Buy recommendation following a management meeting, setting a 12-month price target of 3,500,000 KRW. The stock added 1.0% in Seoul trading to close at 1,858,000.00 KRW.

The investment bank's conviction rests on a supply picture that remains stubbornly tight for high bandwidth memory (HBM). Long-term supply agreements already give the South Korean group considerable visibility into future demand, and server memory — HBM included — accounts for roughly 60% of its DRAM revenue.

Demand Outstrips What the Industry Can Build

Global appetite for high-performance memory from AI data centers continues to run well ahead of what chipmakers can produce. The shortfall looks set to persist into next year: worldwide HBM demand is projected to grow 56%, while supply is expected to rise just 50%. That gap should translate into meaningful price increases for HBM4, the next-generation standard.

SK Hynix is responding with a sweeping capacity push. At its Cheongju M15X facility, monthly wafer input is slated to climb from about 10,000 to 80,000 units. Preparations are also advancing for the company's new mega-site in Yongin, where the first cleanrooms are due to come online in early 2027.

The technology transition carries its own costs and rewards. By adopting advanced logic base dies, SK Hynix expects HBM4 modules to deliver roughly 40% better energy efficiency than their predecessors — a critical improvement for operators of power-hungry data centers.

Samsung Gains Ground as CXMT Enters the Fray

Competitive pressure is building despite the robust demand backdrop. Counterpoint Research data shows domestic rival Samsung clawing back share: SK Hynix's slice of global HBM revenue slipped to 50% in the second quarter from 58% in the prior period, while Samsung jumped from 21% to 33%.

The threat extends beyond Korea's borders. On Monday, Chinese chipmaker CXMT reportedly kicked off mass production of advanced fifth-generation DRAM, intensifying the challenge to established players Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix, which have long dominated this core segment. CXMT posted an operating margin of 82% in a recent quarter, outpacing SK Hynix at 76% and Samsung Electronics at 70%, fueled by sharply higher DDR5 memory chip prices.

Analysts caution that mounting competition could eventually weigh on the sector's exceptionally high operating margins. For now, South Korean chipmakers are locking up large portions of future output through manufacturing commitments to leading chip designers such as Nvidia.

Defending the Home Turf

SK Hynix is leaning harder into specialized solutions for modern data centers to protect its position. On September 15, the company appeared at the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara, California, doubling its exhibition space and showcasing next-generation technologies including HBM, PIM, HBF and SALT-KV offerings.

At the same time, the group is sorting out its international manufacturing footprint. In a mandatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, SK Hynix clarified that reports about building a fab in Japan remain under review and that no decisions have been made.

Roughly a week earlier, reports of exploratory talks with Intel drew attention, sending the stock up 4.9% in the sessions that followed. Among the scenarios discussed: manufacturing memory chips in the United States, leasing an Intel plant in Ohio, and forming a joint venture with major cloud customers. SK Hynix stressed that no concrete plans have been finalized.

A Long Road to 2030

Beyond its near-term capacity additions, the company is securing production space for the long haul. Together with regional authorities and industry partners, planning is underway for a new chip cluster in Gwangju, with participating manufacturers committing a total investment of 800 trillion won. Construction of the fabrication facilities there is targeted for 2028, with SK Hynix planning a memory fab at the site alongside two additional large projects in the Yongin cluster. Mass production in Gwangju is slated to begin around mid-2030.

The stock has already delivered a stellar run this year, up 186% year to date. More recently, shares changed hands at 1,846,000.00 KRW, a modest gain of 0.3%, with the year-to-date advance standing at 184% — underpinned by sustained memory demand from AI and cloud applications. The long-range expansion plans reinforce the company's ambition to hold a leading position in AI infrastructure for years to come.