SK Hynix Charts Gwangju Expansion as HBM4 Pricing Clouds Near-Term Outlook

SK Hynix pushes Gwangju chip cluster toward 2030 mass production while brokerage views diverge on HBM4 timing and pricing.

SK Hynix is pressing ahead with a long-horizon capacity buildout even as its near-term trading picture turns murky, a split-screen that has left analysts divided on how quickly the memory maker's next growth phase will materialize.

Chey Tae-won, chairman of parent SK Group, said Friday that the planned semiconductor cluster in the South Korean city of Gwangju will be pushed forward as rapidly as local conditions and infrastructure permit, with the site's first fab slated to begin mass production in 2030. Construction there could run in parallel with the company's already-underway megaproject in Yongin. Gwangju had originally been sized at roughly two-thirds of Yongin's capacity, but Chey indicated the site could now be expanded beyond that earlier blueprint. No date has been set for a groundbreaking.

Brokerage Views Diverge on HBM Trajectory

The long-term commitment lands against a more cautious short-term backdrop. Bernstein analyst Mark Li trimmed his price target on SK Hynix to 2.7 million Won from 3.3 million Won on September 29, while keeping an Outperform rating. Li cited more conservative assumptions on HBM progress and pricing, softer signals from the production site, and anticipated supply constraints for the coming HBM4 generation.

DS Investment & Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating the same day, flagging headwinds from a stronger Won and the pending technology transition. The firm also pointed to potential fourth-quarter relief, saying accelerating HBM4-driven revenue growth and rising memory prices could restore positive momentum.

IBK Investment & Securities added its own vote of confidence on Wednesday, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a 4 million Won target. The Korean brokerage projects third-quarter 2026 revenue of 95.8 trillion Won and operating profit of 75.1 trillion Won.

Talent Flows to China Draw Parliamentary Attention

A separate thread of concern has emerged from Seoul's legislature. A parliamentary investigation found that 27 former employees of SK Hynix and rival Samsung Electronics have moved to Chinese memory manufacturer CXMT, according to a lawmaker's office. The departing specialists span roles from chip development through mass production, feeding market worries about an accelerated transfer of know-how toward China.

The disclosure carries particular weight because CXMT is rapidly scaling its DRAM manufacturing capacity, while SK Hynix works to defend its technological lead in advanced memory used in artificial intelligence data centers.

Thursday's Selloff and the Forces Behind It

Memory equities came under visible pressure in US trading Thursday. Profit-taking after technical lockup expiries combined with Toshiba's announced capacity expansions to stoke fears of future oversupply in memory chips. Weaker preliminary quarterly results from Samsung Electronics, alongside rising oil prices and bond yields, further dampened sentiment across the sector.

SK Hynix shares closed Thursday at 1,697,000.00 KRW, a daily decline of 1.5 percent, though the stock remains up 161 percent year-to-date. Media reports also pointed to currency effects and employee bonus provisions weighing on near-term earnings prospects ahead of third-quarter 2026 results, with valuation gaps between the company's US depositary receipts and its Seoul-listed shares playing a role as well.

ETF Flows, AMD Talks and Solidigm Options

Not all the signals point one way. Goldman Sachs analyst Heather Oh said Tuesday that rotations into semiconductor ETFs could benefit SK Hynix, with capital potentially flowing toward the company even as Samsung Electronics faces outflows — though caution ahead of upcoming earnings has capped the stock at times.

On the strategic front, the leadership of SK Hynix and US chipmaker AMD met in Seoul to discuss cooperation on high-bandwidth memory. Plans for US subsidiary Solidigm also remain under review, with media reports indicating various financing options are being explored, though management has not made any binding decisions.