Silver Steadies at $61 as Traders Brace for Payrolls Verdict

Silver futures settled at $61.35 an ounce as Treasury yields pulled back, but the metal remains down 7.8% over 30 days ahead of Friday's jobs report.

Silver futures caught their breath on Thursday, with the front-month COMEX contract settling at $61.35 an ounce as a pullback in US Treasury yields offered the metal a rare reprieve. The bounce followed a bruising stretch in which monetary policy headwinds have shaved 6.6% off prices since the Federal Reserve raised rates roughly two weeks ago.

The yield retreat came after the 10-year Treasury note eased to about 5.24%, down from a peak of 5.34% — its highest since 2002. Falling yields tend to lift the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals on a relative basis, giving silver room to claw back some ground.

A Divided Fed Leaves Markets Guessing

Beneath the surface, however, the rate outlook remains anything but settled. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both signaled there is no urgency for an immediate further hike, though neither ruled out moves before year-end. Williams made the case for patience, while Jefferson suggested the central bank may need more time before its next data-driven decision.

Their caution was matched by equally forceful hawkish voices. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pushed for at least another 50 basis points of tightening, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stressed that inflation is still running too hot — going so far as to float further tightening through 2027. That split has left traders second-guessing the path ahead, with a firmer dollar compounding the pressure on commodities.

Thirty-Day Scorecard Paints a Weaker Picture

The longer view is less forgiving. As of Wednesday's close of $60.76 an ounce, silver had lost 7.8% over 30 days and sat 7.1% below its 50-day average of $65.40. Over a seven-day horizon, the decline stands at 5.2%, underscoring how fragile the near-term trend remains despite Thursday's stabilization.

Demand dynamics have shifted as well. Amy Gower of Morgan Stanley points out that industrial consumption from the solar sector and inflows into exchange-traded funds had been the metal's main pillars of support, but higher prices and elevated volatility have recently put the brakes on industrial offtake.

Payrolls Take Center Stage

All eyes now turn to Friday's release of September nonfarm payrolls. The consensus calls for a gain of 90,000 jobs, down sharply from 162,000 the prior month, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.1%. TD Securities is even more downbeat, projecting an increase of just 50,000.

A noticeably cooler labor market could reinforce expectations that the Fed will hold fire at its next meeting, giving silver a chance to firm up around the psychologically important $60 mark. Should the report come in unexpectedly strong, renewed rate-hike bets would likely strengthen the dollar and deal another blow to the metal.

From a technical standpoint, the picture stays tense. Only a sustained recovery of the levels silver has recently surrendered would meaningfully brighten the chart — until then, the market's next move hinges squarely on the morning's data.