Silver Speculators Slash Bets by Half as ETF Buyers Step In and Shanghai Eases Collateral Rules

Silver futures traders have beaten a sharp retreat from the COMEX, even as buyers of physically backed funds moved in the opposite direction. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission show speculative net-long positions in the metal fell roughly 54% in the week through October 13 compared with mid-September levels — a pullback that points to mounting caution after a stretch of violent price swings.

The divergence is striking. Global silver ETF holdings climbed by more than 18 million ounces over the past week, suggesting longer-horizon investors treated the dip as an entry point while short-term players banked profits or cut losses. Shanghai moved to give traders more room to maneuver as well: the Shanghai Gold Exchange trimmed margin requirements on silver contracts to 24% from 27%.

A Rough Year Leaves Prices Deep in the Red

Friday's session closed at USD 57.13 an ounce, a level that leaves the metal 53% below its 52-week high of USD 121.78 set in January. Year-to-date, silver is down 19%, and it sits 11% beneath its 50-day moving average of USD 64.31.

The road to that level has been bumpy. A hotter-than-expected US inflation reading — 3.7% year on year and 0.6% month on month — revived fears of a prolonged restrictive stance from the Federal Reserve and knocked silver down 6.09% in a single session. Chart watchers are now focused on whether the current slide opens the door to tests of lower territory, with a firm ceiling building overhead that could cap any rebound attempt.

Soft Data and a Weaker Dollar Offer Relief

The week's close brought some breathing room. Disappointing US retail sales and a subdued factory gauge eased pressure across commodity markets on Friday. With earlier producer-price figures having taken some heat off the Fed, Treasury yields drifted lower and the dollar softened, tempering worries about another rate hike in October.

Heraeus, the precious-metals refiner, sees precedent for the current malaise. Extreme rallies in the metals space have historically been followed by deep and drawn-out corrections, often lasting many months before conditions settle. Traders will get fresh signals in the week of October 19–23, when US housing and consumer-confidence releases land.

Mine Output Tells a Mixed Story

Production reports from silver miners painted an uneven picture of physical supply. Aya Gold & Silver posted record third-quarter 2026 output of 1.50 million ounces at its Zgounder mine, up 11% year on year, with consolidated production of 2.03 million ounces of silver equivalent.

Others were less fortunate. First Majestic reported 3.4 million ounces for the quarter, held back by a twelve-day labor dispute at its San Dimas operation. Endeavour Silver delivered just under 2.10 million ounces after a blockade halted work at Terronera in August. Guanajuato Silver, meanwhile, produced 392,138 ounces, with extraction at its Valenciana complex suspended following an August decision to prioritize exploration.

Vault Stocks Rise as the Deficit Widens

On the supply side, COMEX inventories rose 1.2 million ounces in the October 14 survey to 333.2 million ounces, split between 103.1 million ounces registered and 230.1 million ounces eligible.

Underneath the near-term noise, the structural picture remains supportive. Research from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus projects a global supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces for full-year 2026, wider than the prior year's 40.3 million-ounce shortfall. Whether the softer economic prints can keep a lid on rate expectations will go a long way toward deciding the metal's next move.