Silver Settles at $60.71 as Weak Payrolls Rewrite the October Rate Calculus

COMEX silver closed Friday at $60.71, down 1.0%, after weak September payrolls cut October Fed hike odds below 15%.

Silver wrapped up a turbulent stretch of trading on Friday with the front-month COMEX contract settling at $60.71 an ounce, a modest 1.0% daily decline that masks a week of sharp mood swings. Beneath that quiet closing print lies a tug-of-war between resurgent rate anxiety and a surprisingly soft US jobs report that handed precious metals a late-week reprieve.

A Week That Turned on Its Head

The metal spent the early sessions on the back foot. Brent crude briefly touched $107 a barrel on Monday as geopolitical friction flared, stoking fears of a fresh inflation wave that pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher in tandem. New York Fed President John Williams added to the pressure by suggesting further policy tightening before year-end could be warranted given price pressures, and at one point traders priced the odds of an October rate hike at 70%.

Then came Friday's payrolls release, and the script flipped. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. The sharp slowdown in hiring reshaped the rate outlook almost instantly: media reports put the implied probability of a Federal Reserve move in October below 15%. For a non-yielding asset like silver, the easing of yield pressure amounts to meaningful relief.

Earlier in the week, the picture had already begun to shift. Thursday's unexpectedly tame US inflation reading cooled October rate expectations, though firmer yields and elevated energy costs kept a lid on any rally. Wednesday's PCE inflation data had likewise triggered a reassessment, with the soft September employment report — showing wage growth slowing to 3.0% — reinforcing the dovish tilt.

Rollover Meets Record Deliveries

Running alongside the macro crosscurrents, the scheduled contract roll played out on the futures exchanges. The September COMEX contract closed out with 6,773 standard contracts delivered, equivalent to 33.865 million ounces of silver.

Physical logistics remain stretched. Scottsdale Mint says refining delays still run three to four months depending on the feedstock, even though finished metal is amply available in the US market.

Inventories Shift Beneath the Surface

Stock movements at the exchange also drew attention. During the week of September 18–25, roughly 2.5 million ounces flowed into COMEX vaults, lifting the total to 332.6 million ounces as of September 25. The composition told its own story: registered stocks fell by 1 million ounces while eligible holdings grew by 3.5 million ounces. For the market, those inflows added liquidity to the depots, though from a technical standpoint participants stayed on the sidelines ahead of the coming rate decision.

Analysts Keep the Faith

Despite the recent slide, the broader outlook from major institutions remains constructive. On September 30, UBS reaffirmed its forecast of $70 an ounce by December 2026, with a possible climb to $80 by September 2027. UBS strategist Dominic Schnider cited the metal's tight correlation with gold, sturdy industrial demand, and structurally constrained supply growth as the pillars of that view.

On the charts, silver trades at a 7.3% discount to its 50-day average of $65.51. The next real compass point arrives with the Fed's October 28, 2026 decision, followed by fresh labor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics slated for November 6.