Silver's Two Clocks: Bank of America Sees $55 This Year and $75 by Mid-2027

Bank of America has laid out a silver outlook that splits cleanly in two: a cautious near-term call and a far bolder view further out. In research published today, the bank projects $55 per troy ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026, then $75 for both the second and third quarters of 2027.

The gap between those numbers matters more than any single figure. The bank is not calling a turning point — it is describing a market that stays soft through year-end before finding its footing. Investors reading the $75 target as a green light would be skipping over the first half of the forecast.

Yesterday's COMEX front-month settlement of $57.23 an ounce sits above the bank's fourth-quarter estimate, a reminder that the near-term call leans conservative rather than bullish.

A supply surplus with one caveat

For 2026, Bank of America expects the silver market to run a surplus. The risk it flags is faster substitution: technological change could cut silver consumption in the solar sector by 11% that same year.

That qualifier is narrower than it may sound. The projection covers one end market, not industrial demand as a whole, and it shows how shifts in a single application can move the overall demand picture. Anyone betting on higher silver prices should keep the solar figure separate from total fabrication demand — and should not read the long-dated price target as a promise that every demand segment cooperates.

Vault data cut both ways

Fresh COMEX inventory figures, also out today, offer context without settling the scarcity question. The CME Group's daily report shows 334.87 million troy ounces of silver in COMEX vaults as of Friday, of which 103.12 million ounces sit in the "registered" category. Registered metal and total stored metal are distinct measures, and a single snapshot says nothing about whether stocks are building or draining — that requires a comparison over time.

Regional signals diverge. The LBMA reported on October 14 that London held 28,985 tonnes of silver in September, up 1.95% from the prior month. The organization is explicit that the figure covers total holdings, not metal available for immediate delivery.

China tells a different story. Media reports put the country's social silver stock at 3,909 tonnes in the week through Thursday, a decline of 25 tonnes. The same assessment described actual buying activity as weak despite lower prices, and inventories at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and warrant holdings at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were also reported lower.

Falling stocks paired with sluggish purchases undercut the simple reading that outflows equal strong demand. The inventory data, in short, document regional differences rather than a single verdict on global tightness.

Why supply can't rush to meet demand

Sprott's Zhu pointed to electronics and AI infrastructure as sources of demand, and noted that supply responds slowly because silver often emerges as a by-product of other mining operations. He also listed real interest rates, inflation expectations and US debt among the forces shaping the price, while describing Chinese demand, Shanghai premiums and rising ETF holdings as signs of investor interest.

Those remarks help explain why no single demand forecast tells the whole story. Technological savings in one sector sit alongside other industrial uses and a supply base that cannot scale up quickly. For investors, the takeaway is to keep the horizons apart: Bank of America sees higher prices arriving next year, while its shorter-dated call still counsels patience. The next scheduled marker is the Federal Reserve's decision on October 28, which leaves two separate questions on the table — how inventories and purchases evolve, and where US monetary policy heads.