Silver's Technical Rebound Collides With Wall Street's Boldest Price Calls Yet

Silver reclaims 100-day MA, but technicals clash with bullish bank forecasts up to $309, signaling market uncertainty.

The white metal's recent pullback has already run its course, at least by one key technical measure. Silver reclaimed its 100-day moving average on Tuesday, settling Monday at $68.97 per ounce — virtually flat on the day — after briefly touching a three-day low during the latest correction. The decisive break back above the 100-day line at $67.48 has handed near-term momentum back to the bulls, with the $70 threshold now back in focus.

That recovery, however, masks a widening schism between chart-based signals and the increasingly aggressive forecasts emanating from major banks. The technical picture points one direction; the institutional consensus points another — and the gap between them has rarely been this wide.

A Wall Street Target Parade

The rally that carried silver past $70 on August 21 has unleashed a wave of revised price targets that would have seemed fanciful just months ago. UBS sees $80, J.P. Morgan $85, BNP Paribas $100 and CIBC $105. Citigroup is calling for $110 in the second half of the year, while BMO has gone as far as $160. The most striking projection comes from Bank of America, which has staked out a range of $135 to $309.

Gold is enjoying a similar re-rating, with Wells Fargo Investment Institute projecting prices between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce by end-2026 and $5,400 to $5,600 in 2027 — though it does not rule out a near-term pullback to $3,500. The perceived linkage between the two metals in investor portfolios is adding further fuel to silver's speculative fire.

The enthusiasm has already bled into the equities complex. Hecla Mining has jumped 47 percent, Wheaton Precious Metals 44 percent, while Coeur Mining, First Majestic and Fortuna Silver have each advanced roughly 42 percent. Pan American Silver trails at 22 percent. Sector ETFs tell a similar story: the Global X Silver Miners ETF is up 35 percent and the Junior Silver Miners ETF 32 percent — moves that have run well ahead of the underlying metal, a hallmark of late-stage speculative surges in commodities.

The Technical Counterweight

Not every chartist shares the optimism. An Elliott Wave analysis identifies silver as being in a corrective phase since its record high of roughly $121.6 in late January, with the market now working through the final wave of a five-part downward structure. That reading leaves open a theoretical target as low as $38.8 — though only if the metal stays below $63.3, a level that would cap the durability of any recovery rallies.

The tension between these short-term bullish signals and longer-term skeptical wave counts captures the broader edginess gripping the precious metals complex. Silver remains up 77 percent over twelve months, yet still sits 43 percent below its 52-week high of $121.78. From its 52-week low of $38.52 in late August last year, the metal has recovered 79 percent.

Washington's Heavy Hand

The macro backdrop continues to steer the tape. The dollar index slipped below 99.00 on Tuesday, with markets largely shrugging off louder calls for rate hikes from non-voting Fed officials. The implied probability of a September increase has fallen from roughly two-thirds to about one-third, according to analysts — a shift that typically supports precious metals by making them cheaper for non-dollar buyers.

All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Warsh, scheduled to speak Friday at Jackson Hole. BofA strategists warn that 30-year Treasury yields could climb to 5.5 percent if Warsh fails to address the inflation question directly. The Treasury Department, meanwhile, has doubled its bond buyback program to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9 — a move investor Stanley Druckenmiller has dismissed as pure "price management." Wednesday's PCE inflation data could further reshape rate expectations.

Critics note that such interventions sidestep the underlying problem: a budget deficit running at roughly six percent of GDP against a total debt load exceeding $40 trillion. Rising interest costs and fraying confidence in bond markets are widely viewed as structural tailwinds for metals as stores of value.

For now, the near-term question is whether silver's reclaim of the 100-day line marks the opening salvo of another run at $70 — or merely a pause before the next leg of a correction that some technicians insist is far from complete. The coming days, with PCE data and Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on the calendar, should offer an answer.