Silver's Micro-Futures Surge 61% as Traders Weigh Record Supply Gap Against Fed Uncertainty

CME micro silver volume rose 61% in September even as COMEX silver settled at $60.71, down 6.2% on the week, with a 2026 deficit forecast at 46.3M ounces.

Retail-sized exposure to silver has rarely been this popular. CME Group data show average daily volume in Micro Silver futures climbing 61% year-over-year in September to 58,000 contracts — a clear signal that smaller participants are leaning into the precious metal even as its headline price stumbles.

The front-month COMEX contract settled Friday at $60.71 an ounce, capping a week in which the metal shed 6.2% and remained stuck below its 50-day moving average of $65.51. That softness has done little to dampen activity in the micro segment, where the lower notional value per contract has made it easier for a broader pool of traders to take positions.

A Sixth Straight Deficit Looms

Underpinning the longer-term bull case, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus project a supply shortfall of 46.3 million ounces in 2026. Should that forecast hold, it would mark the sixth consecutive year in which consumption outpaces mine output — a streak that has become a central talking point for analysts tracking the market's structural tightness. Global mine supply, meanwhile, is expected to grow only modestly, keeping the deficit narrative intact.

Metal Rotates Through COMEX Warehouses

Activity in the exchange's vaults has been just as notable. Total COMEX silver inventories rose by roughly 2.5 million ounces in the week of Sept. 18 to 25, reaching 332.6 million ounces. The headline gain masks a telling split: registered stocks — the metal immediately available to settle delivery obligations — fell by 1 million ounces, while eligible holdings, which sit in approved depositories but are not earmarked for delivery, jumped by 3.5 million ounces. That rotation suggests owners are parking metal rather than preparing it for settlement.

Inflation Data and a Dovish Nudge

The macro backdrop has been anything but settled. On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.3% rise in the August PCE price index and a 0.2% gain in the core reading. Both came in below consensus, briefly reviving hopes that the Federal Reserve might slow its tightening path. New York Fed President John Williams added to the softer tone, remarking that policymakers feel no urgency to rush further rate moves.

Payrolls Miss Fails to Ignite a Rally

Any optimism proved short-lived. Friday's September employment report, as reported by Reuters, showed just 29,000 nonfarm jobs created — far short of the 90,000 economists had expected. Even so, silver failed to mount a sustained rebound, with elevated Treasury yields continuing to sap demand for non-yielding assets. The metal's recent weakness traces back in part to the Fed's earlier tightening cycle, which has made fixed-income instruments more attractive relative to bullion and industrial metals alike.

Geopolitics added another layer of uncertainty. According to media reports, President Donald Trump on Sept. 28 rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears of higher energy costs and keeping the inflation debate alive.

What to Watch Next

Traders have two key dates circled. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management releases its September services index for the U.S. Then on Wednesday, Oct. 7, the Fed publishes minutes from its Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting. Both events are expected to shed light on the central bank's rate trajectory — and, by extension, on whether silver can break free of its current consolidation.