Silver's Chart Floor and Friday's Payrolls: Two Clocks Ticking at Once

Peter Brandt is willing to entertain the idea that silver has already printed its final low. He is not, however, willing to call the bottoming process finished. In an assessment published today, the veteran chartist points to a falling wedge visible on both daily and weekly timeframes — with one crucial caveat: price has yet to touch the pattern's lower boundary.

That distinction matters more than the headline. Brandt places the wedge's lower edge at roughly USD 48 per troy ounce and sees the potential final low sitting just beneath that support. His more constructive read therefore leaves room for another leg down before any breakout would improve the technical picture. Approaching a floor and confirming one, in his framework, are two very different signals.

What Brandt has ruled out is a return to the low forties. He no longer expects prices in that region. At the same time, he anticipates a gradual climb once a breakout occurs — not an imminent, steep rally. His thesis describes a possible handover from decline to slow recovery, nothing more.

A Wider Spread of Views Than the Chart Suggests

MarketGauge strategist Michele Schneider sits considerably further down the price ladder. Speaking to KITCO News, she flagged USD 35 per troy ounce as a level that could prove attractive for silver. That is not a forecast that the metal must trade there; it is a measure of how far apart the estimates of a good entry point have drifted.

Where Brandt leans on a potential technical base, Schneider names a deeper level that might become appealing. Both views are conditional. Neither supplies a confirmed floor, and neither settles the question of where the price goes next.

Wednesday's Bounce and the Dollar Tailwind

The metal's most recent lift came largely from the financial markets. A softer US dollar and falling Treasury yields propped up the zero-yield asset yesterday. Market participants also read reported Democratic gains in the US midterm elections as a possible signal of political gridlock and less fiscal expansion.

Silver reflected that tailwind clearly, closing at USD 52.24 per troy ounce for a daily gain of 4.9%. The jump on its own does not answer whether the monetary backdrop has shifted durably in the metal's favour. Expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve remain a counterweight.

Friday, 8:30 AM: The Next Stress Test

The October US employment report lands on Friday, 6 November at 8:30 AM US Eastern time, published by the US Labor Department. It could offer clues on the Fed's policy path — and after Wednesday's recovery, it stands as the next potential catalyst for rate expectations and for silver.

The report is more than another economic data point. It could move the very rate expectations that helped shape the recent price action. A strong reading could push silver back toward the wedge's lower boundary. Traders still mostly expect a Fed rate hike in December. The recent support from a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields does not eliminate that risk. For Brandt's bottoming thesis, continued recovery is not the deciding factor — the breakout he anticipates is.

China's Mixed Supply Signal

The physical side offers no clean relief either. According to media reports on Tuesday, China's production of 1# silver bars fell 5.03% in October from September. The main reasons cited were production halts at recycling operations during the National Day holidays and maintenance shutdowns at copper smelters.

Chinese smelters expect further maintenance stoppages at some copper plants in November and December. At the same time, silver bar output from lead-zinc smelters has been recovering since September. October's decline thus sits alongside divergent trends within Chinese production. Cumulative output for 2026 stood at roughly 16,000 tonnes, 3.72% above the same period a year earlier — meaning the weaker October does not translate into an annual decline on a cumulative basis.

Deficit Versus Demand Headwinds

For investors, the separation between short-term financial-market impulses and the physical market's condition remains decisive. An expected supply deficit on its own removes neither rate worries nor risks to industrial demand.

The Silver Institute forecasts a global supply deficit of 46.3 million troy ounces for 2026. At the same time, media reports cite weaker industrial demand and retreating speculative investors as drags. The next concrete test is therefore the announced US employment report: it arrives at a silver market where supply offers support while demand and rate expectations supply the headwind.