Silver's 6% COMEX Slide Leaves Traders Parsing US Data and Mine Output

A wave of US economic releases lands Thursday, and silver traders have little choice but to watch every print. Producer prices for September, retail sales figures and the weekly initial jobless claims all arrive from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other federal agencies, offering the clearest read yet on how sturdy the American economy remains — and, by extension, how the Federal Reserve will steer policy into next year.

The data deluge follows a bruising session. During Wednesday's US hours, the front-month COMEX contract shed 6.0% to settle at 55.80 USD per troy ounce. Year-to-date, the metal has now given up 21%.

Inflation Overshoot Triggered the Selloff

September's US consumer price report, published Wednesday, sat at the root of the pressure. The index climbed 3.7% year-on-year against a consensus forecast of 3.6%, while the monthly reading came in at 0.6%. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading immediately stoked futures-market speculation that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer — a scenario that dims the appeal of yield-free precious metals relative to interest-bearing alternatives.

Some relief surfaced in currency markets early Thursday. According to Reuters, the US dollar retreated from an 18-month peak, with cautious remarks from individual Fed officials and falling Treasury yields tempering bets on near-term rate hikes. Even so, unease across commodity desks persists: crude oil prices also came under pressure, media reports noted, while the yield on ten-year US Treasuries eased. Market participants now await the producer price index and the simultaneously released Empire State Index to see whether they reinforce the sticky-inflation narrative or hint at cooling.

Producers Report a Mixed Quarter

Beyond the macro and currency debate, mining companies have been offering fresh glimpses of their third-quarter 2026 operations. Aya Gold & Silver posted record output of 1.50 million ounces of silver from its Zgounder mine. Across all segments, the company reached consolidated production of 2.03 million ounces of silver equivalent — a 51% jump versus the prior-year period.

Endeavour Silver painted a more subdued picture for the same quarter. The company reported production of 2,096,545 ounces of silver and sales of 1,900,368 ounces. As of the September 30 cutoff, it held 363,854 ounces of silver bullion in inventory. Endeavour also announced it would revise its annual guidance, with output now expected to land at the low end of its range or slightly below.

A 2027 Surplus Takes Shape

Structural supply and demand trends are drawing more attention as the rate picture evolves. In early October, Daniel Ghali of Deutsche Bank projected that the silver market could swing to a supply surplus in 2027 — its first after several years of deficits. The bank cited rising inventories and softening industrial demand, particularly lower silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector. For the second quarter of 2027, Deutsche Bank penciled in an average silver price of 70 USD per troy ounce.

Media reports indicate the institute also expects global consumption in solar applications to fall by more than 20% in 2026, easing physical availability and likely pushing the market into a medium-term surplus.