Silver Reclaims $60 as Easing Energy Costs and Soft Bond Yields Offset Miner Setbacks

Silver reclaimed $60 Friday on softer yields and cheaper oil, though Fed tightening talk and mixed Q3 mine output keep the outlook cautious.

Silver punched back above the $60-a-troy-ounce threshold on Friday, lifted by a twin dose of relief from energy markets and the US Treasury curve. The front-month COMEX contract had settled the prior session at $59.43, a 1.0% daily decline, before Friday's rebound restored the metal to the psychologically important round number.

The turnaround owed much to a well-received auction of 30-year US government debt, which pulled long-dated yields lower, alongside a retreat in crude oil prices that took the edge off near-term inflation pressure. Precious metals, which pay no coupon, tend to benefit when the opportunity cost of holding them shrinks — and that is precisely the dynamic that unfolded as energy costs cooled and fixed-income returns softened.

Political signals added to the calmer tone. According to media reports, Donald Trump said Washington was holding productive talks with Iran and would not launch a strike ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. The combination of cheaper energy and lower yields gave an immediate lift to non-yielding hard assets.

Fed Voices Keep a Lid on Enthusiasm

Even with Friday's bounce, the broader macro backdrop remains a headwind. Ten-year US yields stood at 5.330% on Thursday, a level that had weighed heavily on bullion and silver alike. Restrictive commentary from Federal Reserve officials has compounded the pressure.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Friday that rates may need to climb further over the next six to nine months to steer inflation durably toward the 2% target. Futures traders, however, were pricing roughly an 80% probability — per Reuters on Thursday — that the Fed would hold rates steady at its two-day meeting on October 28.

Market watchers are already looking past that decision to the September US consumer price index, which the Labor Department has scheduled for release on October 14. The print is expected to offer fresh clues on the path of monetary policy.

UBS Sees Room to Run Over the Longer Haul

Not everyone is focused on the near term. Dominic Schnider of Swiss banking giant UBS forecast in early October that silver would reach $70 an ounce by December 2026 and $75 by mid-2027. While Schnider flagged a tighter Fed as a short-term obstacle, he pointed to solid industrial and investment demand as the pillars underpinning his call.

Supply-side developments, meanwhile, have injected a note of caution. Several producers reported quarterly figures, and the picture was mixed.

Output Snags at Two Major Producers

First Majestic Silver posted attributable silver production of 3,440,447 ounces for the third quarter of 2026 — an 11% decline from the year-earlier period. A twelve-day labor dispute at the San Dimas mine disrupted operations for nearly two weeks, forcing the company to draw down larger volumes from existing stockpiles on an attributable basis during the quarter.

Endeavour Silver, by contrast, lifted silver output 19% to 2,096,545 ounces in the same period, yet operational mishaps at two sites blunted the momentum. At Guanaceví, a mill failure left only reduced capacity from September 21, with repairs slated for the first half of October. Separately, interruptions hampered the Terronera project. As a result, management expects full-year production to land at or slightly below the low end of its prior guidance range.

Those operational snags landed against a market that was already on the back foot. On Wednesday, the COMEX front-month contract closed at $60.05, a 2.7% daily loss, leaving silver 8.2% below its 50-day moving average of $65.39.

Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting showed policymakers taking note of rising bond-market yields and stubborn inflation. Media reports indicated a majority of Fed members anticipate another tightening before year-end, with the next regular meeting set for October 27–28, 2026.

Just over a week ago, the structural supply deficit in the silver market had taken center stage; since then, prices have slipped 1.1%. The tug-of-war between constrained mine supply and restrictive rate prospects continues to define the market's direction.