Silver Holds $57 Handle as Deutsche Bank Maps a $70 Path to 2027

Silver futures settled Monday at $57.23 an ounce on the COMEX, little changed on the session but down 3.6% over the past seven days. The metal nonetheless sits 26% above its 52-week low of $45.51, a cushion buyers have defended repeatedly — most recently around the $55 support line.

That resilience is drawing fresh attention to the supply-and-demand plumbing underneath the price. Chinese customs data for September showed exports of 99.99%-pure unwrought silver falling 23.7% month-on-month to 309.77 tonnes. Imports of the high-grade metal moved the other way, jumping 73.5% to 114.93 tonnes, while inbound shipments of silver ore and concentrates reached 268,639.57 tonnes.

Vaults Are Filling on Both Sides of the Atlantic

Physical stockpiles in the major trading hubs are rebuilding. The latest COMEX warehouse report listed 334,872,333.209 fine ounces in total, split between 103,117,429.793 ounces in the registered (immediately deliverable) category and 231,754,903.416 ounces eligible. In London, LBMA data put silver holdings at 28,985 tonnes as of September 30 — up 1.95% on the month and 3.22% over the third quarter.

Against that, mine output is softening. The Silver Institute expects global mine production to slip 0.3% to 844.1 million ounces across full-year 2026. Producers' quarterly scorecards reflect the mixed backdrop: Guanajuato Silver reported third-quarter output of 392,138 ounces of silver, while Endeavour Silver produced 2,096,545 ounces over the same three months.

A Bullish Call That Comes With a Warning

Deutsche Bank's head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, on October 14 projected an average silver price of $70 per ounce for the second quarter of 2027. Yet Ghali also flagged the possibility that the global silver market swings from deficit into surplus as early as 2027, citing rising inventories and cooling industrial demand — solar in particular.

Near term, the US rate backdrop remains the dominant force. Silver pays no yield, so elevated US rates and lingering inflation worries have weighed on momentum. Reuters reported that expectations of a December rate hike briefly surged after unexpectedly strong US inflation data, and nerves are running high ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting. At $57.13 at the end of last week, the metal traded 11% below its 50-day moving average.

Chart watchers note that buyers have so far held the $55 zone. With the Fed decision looming, traders appear reluctant to make big new commitments — even as industry forecasts for the next twelve months sketch a far more optimistic picture.