Silver Climbs 2.8% to $61.11 as Energy Relief and Soft Yields Offset a 2027 Surplus Warning

Silver ends a three-session slide, settling at $61.11 an ounce as softer crude and lower long-dated Treasury yields weakened the dollar.

Silver snapped a three-session losing streak on Friday, advancing 2.8% to settle at $61.11 per troy ounce as a broad retreat in crude oil prices eased inflation worries and pulled long-dated Treasury yields lower. The rally, reported by Reuters, lifted the wider precious metals complex while the US dollar softened, giving bullion its first meaningful breathing room in days.

The prior slump had been driven largely by climbing US government bond yields and a firm greenback, which peaked midweek and weighed heavily on dollar-denominated metals. Two developments turned the tide: cooling energy costs, which blunt the inflation impulse that feeds rate-hike expectations, and solid demand at a US auction of 30-year Treasuries. The resulting pullback in long-term borrowing costs capped the dollar's advance and opened the door to a countermove.

Geopolitics added a second layer of calm. US President Donald Trump said Washington would not strike Iran ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, remarks that further settled nerves across financial markets. With financing costs easing and inflation anxiety receding, capital rotated back toward hard assets.

Even after Friday's gain, silver remains below its 200-day moving average of $70.26 — a reminder that the correction of recent months has not yet run its course.

Exchange Vaults Tell a Story of Their Own

Fresh data from the futures arena offered a window into inventory trends. The CME Group reported a total silver stock of 331.8 million fine ounces across COMEX depositories as of Friday, a decline of 1.3 million ounces from the previous report. Registered — or immediately deliverable — holdings accounted for 102.8 million ounces, while eligible stocks made up 229.0 million ounces. For the current delivery month, 70 delivery notices were filed as of October 1, split between 65 standard contracts and five micro contracts.

New supply is also taking shape in South America. Silver Mountain announced Monday that it has begun first concentrate production at its Reliquias mine in Peru, with initial shipments slated for this month.

A Deficit Today, a Glut Tomorrow?

The market's fundamental backdrop remains a study in contrasts. Roughly two weeks ago, attention centered on silver's supply shortfall — a theme that has accompanied a 0.7% price gain since. The Silver Institute projects a 2026 shortfall of 46.3 million ounces.

Looking further out, Deutsche Bank sees the possibility of a supply surplus from 2027, citing rising inventories and a cooling in industrial demand. The bank forecasts a more than 20% drop in global silver consumption from the photovoltaic sector in 2026 and estimated freely available London stocks at over 300 million ounces at the end of August.

Inflation Prints Take Center Stage

Near-term direction now hinges on US economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release both the producer price index and the consumer price index for September on October 14 — the CPI at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern Time. Investors are counting on these figures for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

The interplay between US economic releases and rate expectations drives flows among fixed-income securities, currencies and commodities — a dynamic that routinely produces sharp swings in silver. How much room the metal has left in the current rate environment will depend on what those inflation numbers reveal.