Shell's Moroccan SAF Bet, Greek LNG Pact and $10.8 Billion Quarter Collide With a Softer Crude Tape

Shell spent the first days of November stacking up long-term offtake commitments on two continents, even as a weakening oil price — not anything the company said or did — weighed on its shares midweek. Traders attributed the pullback to a softer crude outlook after signals around the US midterms and remarks by Vice President JD Vance fueled expectations that pressure to wind down the Iran conflict could build. No fresh company-specific announcement from Shell drove the move, according to reports.

The stock had already felt the pinch on 2 November, when hopes for progress in Iran diplomacy pushed Brent lower and Shell and other oil producers slipped in response.

A 150,000-Tonne Handshake in Morocco

On that same day, Shell Trading Rotterdam B.V. reportedly sealed a long-term, exclusive offtake agreement with Green Sky Manara. The deal covers roughly 150,000 tonnes a year of sustainable aviation fuel, or a corresponding volume of hydrotreated vegetable oil, alongside bionaphtha and biopropane from a planned facility at Port Nador. Production at the site is expected to begin in October 2028, meaning the contract looks ahead to a plant that has yet to come online. Green Sky Manara is the supplier; the Shell entity is the buyer.

Six LNG Cargoes a Year for Greece

Operationally, Shell also reported a binding supply contract with METLEN on 2 November. Signed by Shell Global LNG Limited, the five-year arrangement provides for six LNG cargoes annually, with deliveries due to start in 2027 and total around 0.6 billion cubic metres per year. The liquefied natural gas will come predominantly from Shell's US LNG portfolio, giving the pact both a fixed delivery window and a defined yearly volume.

Upstream, Shell Offshore had flagged on 28 October the start of production at the third expansion phase of the Silvertip project. Two additional wells are being tied into the Perdido production platform in the Gulf of America, which Shell operates.

Record Refining Margins Underpin the Quarter

Those operational threads run alongside a strong set of quarterly figures. On 29 October Shell posted an adjusted profit of $10.8 billion for the third quarter of 2026, with operating cash flow of $21.0 billion. Management credited strong operational performance and record-high refining margins. The company also declared an interim dividend for the quarter and filed its results and unaudited interim financial report with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Form 6-K.

Shareholder returns got a further boost roughly two weeks earlier, when Shell announced a $5 billion buyback programme to run over the following three months.

RBC Lifts Its Target, Keeps Its Rating

Analysts have been adjusting their models accordingly. RBC Capital Markets raised its price target on Shell from 4,000p to 4,100p on 30 October, while keeping its "Sector Perform" rating — the higher mark came without a change in stance.

The same day brought a disclosure of insider activity: Andrew Smith, President, Trading and Supply, sold 33,000 ordinary shares on 30 October. The transaction was reported as an executed sale rather than a planned disposal.

As of that date, Shell put its share capital at approximately 5.7 billion voting ordinary shares, with a nominal value of €0.07 per share — a figure the company explicitly tied to its capital position as of 30 October.