Shell Balances Newfoundland Exploration Bet With Greek LNG Deal and $5 Billion Buyback

Shell is deepening its presence off Canada's east coast while simultaneously locking in new gas customers in Europe — a two-front move that comes as the energy major rides a profit surge but keeps a tighter grip on spending.

At a licensing round on Wednesday, Shell secured six exploration parcels offshore Newfoundland and committed to work worth CAD 210.6 million. Alongside Equinor, it picked up two further licences carrying an additional CAD 30 million in work obligations. The partners have six years to complete the programs before the acreage must be handed back.

The new blocks sit in the same offshore basin as Bay du Nord, the Equinor-operated development in which Shell holds a 30% stake. Estimated construction costs for that project stand at CAD 14 billion, with a final investment decision expected in the first quarter of 2027. That date now looms as the clearest near-term test of Shell's Canadian ambitions — the freshly awarded acreage, by contrast, is years away from proving commercial.

LNG Supply Deal Reaches Greece

On the commercial side, Shell Global LNG Limited signed a five-year liquefied natural gas supply agreement with METLEN on Monday. The contract covers six cargoes a year, or roughly 0.6 billion cubic metres annually, with deliveries due to begin in 2027. Volumes will be sourced mainly from Shell's US LNG portfolio and shipped to Greece or other European markets.

The company also disclosed purchases of its own shares for cancellation under its ongoing repurchase programme, with the transactions executed on Thursday. Shell had announced a $5.0 billion buyback just over a week earlier; it is scheduled for completion before the fourth-quarter 2026 results are published.

Earnings Power Meets Spending Discipline

Those shareholder returns rest on a strong quarter. Shell reported adjusted earnings of $10.814 billion for the third quarter of 2026 on 29 October, alongside operating cash flow of $21.043 billion and a quarterly dividend of $0.3906 per share. The profit figure marked a doubling from a year earlier, helped by higher commodity prices and supply disruptions in the Middle East.

The same conflict cut into Shell's operational base, however: gas output fell by a third from pre-war levels after damage to facilities in the Gulf. Against that backdrop, additional production prospects carry more weight — provided they can be developed economically. Management trimmed planned 2026 capital spending by $1 billion to a range of $23–25 billion, so the new exploration commitments will sit alongside a narrower investment budget.

RBC Capital Markets raised its price target on Shell from 4,000p to 4,100p on 30 October, keeping a "Sector Perform" rating. The broker cited updated commodity price assumptions and higher earnings forecasts. Recent weakness in the share price, by contrast, was attributed by Axios on Wednesday to falling crude prices, as hopes of progress toward ending the Iran conflict eased supply concerns — not to any company-specific deterioration at Shell.

Income investors have a date to circle: Shell will declare its fourth-quarter 2026 dividend on 4 February 2027, with payment set for 30 March 2027. Between now and then, the Bay du Nord investment call and the pace of the buyback give shareholders two concrete markers to watch.