Semiconductor ETF Stages Sharp Rebound as Memory-Chip Supercycle Reshapes the Trade

VanEck Semiconductor ETF rebounds on Omdia's 94% revenue forecast hike, strong earnings, and persistent memory chip scarcity through 2027.

A single session can rewrite a sector's narrative. That was the case on Friday, when the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF jumped 3.17 percent to EUR 91.52, snapping a brutal stretch of selling that had left the fund nursing double-digit losses. The trigger: a cascade of earnings reports and an industry forecast that together painted a picture of a memory-chip shortage with legs.

A Forecast That Nearly Doubles the Outlook

The most consequential datapoint came from research firm Omdia, which on July 30 revised its 2026 semiconductor revenue projection upward by a striking 94.1 percent year-over-year. The firm attributes the surge to insatiable demand for AI hardware, particularly DRAM and NAND memory chips. Memory ICs are now expected to account for more than half of all semiconductor revenue next year for the first time, with supply constraints on high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging seen persisting at least through 2027.

That scarcity is doing exactly what economics textbooks predict: keeping prices elevated and padding the margins of the very companies that dominate this ETF's holdings.

Earnings Season Delivers a One-Two Punch

The macro picture found micro confirmation in a wave of quarterly reports. Lam Research delivered its best trading day since 1999, soaring 18 percent on strong results and an upbeat AI-demand outlook. The move rippled across the sector — Applied Materials climbed 15 percent, Advanced Micro Devices and Marvell Technology each added 13 percent, and Intel gained 11 percent. Taiwan Semiconductor rose 7 percent to USD 399.36, while Nvidia tacked on nearly 3 percent.

Memory specialists joined the rally with particular vigor. Samsung warned that chip shortages could persist into 2028, sending Micron up 18 percent and Sandisk 26 percent. The Korean giant itself posted record second-quarter revenue of KRW 171.5 trillion with operating profit of KRW 89.5 trillion, its memory division delivering the best result in company history. Samsung also confirmed it has begun shipping initial HBM4E samples to key customers.

Amazon provided the demand-side confirmation. Its AWS cloud division grew 37 percent — the fastest pace in 18 quarters — and CEO Andy Jassy described AI and custom-chip demand as "booming." The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to USD 220 billion, a USD 20 billion increase, with Jassy explicitly citing rising memory-chip prices as a driver.

The Other Side of the Coin

Not every datapoint was uniformly bullish. Apple posted record June-quarter revenue of USD 109.4 billion but warned that supply constraints on advanced chip nodes and exploding memory prices would weigh on September-quarter growth. Intel offered a split-screen picture: revenue rose 25 percent to USD 16.1 billion and its data-center and AI business grew 59 percent, yet the company reported a GAAP net loss of USD 11 billion, driven by a non-cash charge of USD 12.5 billion tied to its CHIPS Act agreement.

Context for the Rally

The rebound follows weeks of painful deleveraging, with hedge funds and institutional investors reportedly unwinding positions in tech, chip, and memory names to reduce debt. Several market participants have characterized the selloff as a sharp but temporary setback within a longer-term uptrend.

That framing helps explain the apparent contradiction in the charts. Despite Friday's strong gain, the ETF remains down 11.54 percent over the past 30 days and sits 17.68 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 111.18, reached on June 30. The fund also trades below its 50-day moving average of EUR 98.05. Yet the longer-term picture remains emphatically positive: the ETF is up 71.80 percent over the past year and stands 30.52 percent above its 200-day average.

A Concentrated Structure Amplifies the Swings

The fund tracks the MarketVector US Listed Semiconductor 10% Capped Screened Index, which holds the 25 largest and most liquid US-listed semiconductor companies, each capped at a 10 percent weight. Only firms deriving at least half their revenue from semiconductors or related equipment qualify. That structure concentrates exposure in America's biggest chip designers, foundries, and equipment makers — which is precisely why a single quarter from Lam Research, Intel, or AMD can move the entire fund. The cap limits concentration risk at heavyweights like Nvidia while providing broader diversification than a pure market-cap-weighted index.

With a relative strength index of 46.4 signaling neutral territory and annualized 30-day volatility at 61.84 percent, the coming sessions are likely to remain sensitive to fresh earnings and demand signals. Arm Holdings added support this week with quarterly revenue of USD 1.29 billion, and TSMC gave the all-clear for its JASM facility in Japan following seismic activity on July 28. Whether the memory shortage continues to bolster chipmaker margins — or increasingly squeezes customers like Apple — is the question that will define the next leg of this trade.