SAP's Regulatory Reprieve Masks the Two-Speed Story in Its Shares

SAP's stock rebounds after cartel probe dropped, but profit warning, stretched valuation, and bearish long-term chart keep investors cautious.

The German cartel office's decision to drop its preliminary probe into SAP has removed a cloud that hung over the software group's stock for months. But the relief rally that followed tells only half the tale — the other half is a profit warning, a stretched valuation debate, and a chart that still points firmly downward over the longer term.

Shares in the Walldorf-based company have clawed back ground since plumbing a 52-week low of €127.52 on July 23. The stock now changes hands near €158, having gained roughly 12.75 percent over the past month. Yet for all the recent momentum, SAP remains down about 24 percent since the start of the year — and the gap to its 200-day moving average of roughly €174.67 is still a formidable 9.3 percent.

A Regulatory Burden Lifted, but Not Fully

The Bundeskartellamt confirmed on July 30 that it would not open abuse-of-dominance proceedings against SAP. The probe had centered on whether the company unfairly restricted rival Celonis' access to data in the process-mining arena. Regulators found insufficient evidence to proceed — a meaningful de-risking for the stock, which had traded under that shadow for months.

The relief is not absolute. US competition authorities continue to examine SAP's practices, and the company itself has countersued Celonis over alleged patent infringement. The transatlantic regulatory tangle, in other words, is far from resolved.

The Operational Picture: Cloud Boom, Margin Squeeze

Beneath the regulatory headlines sits a more complex operating story. SAP's cloud business grew 24 percent in the second quarter, with AI components now embedded in more than 90 percent of its largest contracts. Revenue for the period reached €9.88 billion, and earnings per share came in at €1.89, up from €1.46 a year earlier.

That growth, however, has a price. The company has trimmed its profit guidance, citing elevated costs tied to acquisitions. The market's dilemma is straightforward: does the strategic bet on AI-powered cloud solutions justify the margin dilution required to fund it? Analysts currently pencil in full-year 2026 EPS of €7.11, but the profit warning has injected a note of caution into what might otherwise be an unambiguously bullish narrative.

Anchors and Technicals: A Mixed Signal

One quiet development has bolstered the bull case. A voting-rights notification dated July 31 shows Harald Tschira has consolidated his stake to 4.22 percent via voting agreements, up from 0.57 percent previously. A firmer anchor-shareholder base can provide ballast in volatile conditions.

Technically, the stock has recovered roughly 23 percent from its July low and now sits about 8.5 percent above its 50-day moving average of €144.44. The relative strength index reads 63.7 — healthy momentum without the froth of overbought conditions. A sustained push above the 50-day line could draw additional capital in.

The bearish camp, however, points to the bigger picture. SAP still trades 37 percent below its 52-week high of €258.60, and the annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 49 percent suggests investors have not fully regained their composure. The 200-day average remains the key battleground: chartists see a confirmed trend reversal only on a return above roughly €175.

What Happens Next

The immediate support level to watch sits near €153. Holding above that, together with the 50-day average, would suggest the current consolidation can extend. A break below, by contrast, reopens the path toward the July low.

Two catalysts will shape the next leg. The first is the third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for October 21, which will test whether cloud momentum can translate into margin recovery. The second is the broader tech sentiment — Amazon's CEO has already warned of a "challenging macroeconomic environment," a caution that could weigh on SAP's new-business momentum in the second half.

For now, the regulatory reprieve has given SAP's shareholders breathing room. Whether it becomes the foundation of a genuine turnaround — or merely a pause within a longer downtrend — depends on the numbers, not the headlines.