SAP's Regulatory All-Clear and Cloud Momentum Fuel a 30-Day Rally, Yet the Stock Still Sits Below Its January Mark

SAP shares climb 18% in 30 days as antitrust probe ends, cloud backlog grows 27%, but 2026 profit outlook trimmed.

The software giant's shares have staged an impressive recovery over the past month, climbing 18 percent in 30 trading days to close Friday at €190.86. That puts the stock roughly 22 percent above its 50-day moving average — a notable rebound for a company that nonetheless remains 8.9 percent in the red since the start of the year and still trades about 21 percent below its 52-week high of €242.00, set back in October.

The recent advance rests on a foundation of operational wins and legal clarity. Chief among the catalysts: Germany's Federal Cartel Office has wrapped up its preliminary inquiry into SAP without launching a formal abuse-of-proceedings case. Regulators determined that customers and partners retain sufficient technical options for accessing data held in SAP systems, removing what could have become a protracted antitrust headache. The development follows the European Commission's decision in early July to accept and make legally binding SAP's commitments regarding support services for on-premises ERP systems.

A Steady Stream of New Business

The regulatory tailwinds coincide with fresh commercial momentum. Japanese IT services provider NTT Data has selected SAP's SuccessFactors, the SAP Business Data Cloud, and the Joule AI orchestrator to overhaul its global HR operations — a migration covering more than 190,000 employees and slated for implementation over twelve months. The deal adds to a growing list of enterprise clients embracing SAP's cloud and AI portfolio, even as industry debate continues over how agent-based AI will integrate into enterprise platforms.

SAP has also been busy expanding beyond its software core. Amperfied, a subsidiary of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, will manage SAP's electric-vehicle charging infrastructure across Germany — currently 1,700 charging points, with plans to scale up to 3,700.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

The second quarter offered concrete evidence that the cloud strategy is translating into financial results. Cloud backlog expanded 27 percent to €22.9 billion, cloud revenue grew 22 percent, and the Cloud ERP Suite segment advanced 25 percent. Total revenue rose 9 percent year over year. Management maintains its full-year guidance for cloud revenue between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion at constant currency.

The acquisition spree, however, carries a cost. SAP completed its purchase of Dremio, a data lakehouse platform, in mid-July, followed days later by the takeover of Prior Labs, a specialist in tabular AI models. SAP has said it will invest more than €1 billion in Prior Labs over the next four years. Together, these deals are expected to weigh on non-IFRS operating income by more than €100 million this year, and management has trimmed its 2026 adjusted operating profit forecast to €11.8–12.2 billion, down from a prior ceiling of €12.3 billion, citing dilution effects.

Buybacks, Insider Confidence, and a Security Caveat

The company continues to execute its €10 billion share repurchase program, which runs through the end of 2027. Through June 30, SAP had acquired roughly 16.28 million shares at an average price of €161.16, representing about €2.6 billion in buybacks. Between August 3 and 7, the company added approximately 2.9 million shares at an average of €169.72 — a level comfortably below the current trading price.

Adding to the vote of confidence, Chief People Officer Gina Vargiu-Breuer made a reportable insider purchase of SAP stock, signaling management's belief in the company's valuation.

Analysts, too, remain constructive following the recent pullback. Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Buy" rating with a €215 price target, Jefferies stands at €210, and Barclays sees fair value at €220. Bank of America also published research raising its own target. All of these figures sit comfortably above Friday's closing price, which rose 1.0 percent on the day.

Not everything is smooth sailing. Security researchers have flagged a critical vulnerability in the SAP MII component with a CVSS score of 9.9, alongside reports of active attack attempts against SAP Commerce Cloud. A patch is expected at the next regular security update on September 9.

The next major checkpoint arrives October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. By then, investors will have a clearer read on whether the combination of analyst optimism, insider buying, and regulatory relief can sustain the rally — or whether lingering concerns about cloud growth reassert themselves.