SAP Girds for Q3 Test as AI Certification Rollout Meets Cautious Analyst Stance

SAP will publish third-quarter 2026 figures at 22:05 MESZ today, with a conference call for financial analysts and investors scheduled to begin at 23:00 MESZ — a release that arrives alongside fresh AI product news and a mixed run of broker verdicts.

The company announced yesterday that it will add AI-powered role-play exercises as an additional route for renewing certifications, supplementing rather than replacing its existing knowledge tests. The feature is set to cover more than 100 certifications, extending the offering well beyond a single credential. SAP has announced the capability; it has not yet rolled it out. For investors, the initiative is a concrete application of artificial intelligence, but it speaks to the certification portfolio rather than to full-year financial targets, and no read-across to cloud growth or goal attainment can be drawn from it.

Cloud backlog in the spotlight

Attention instead centers on the Current Cloud Backlog (CCB), cloud growth and any reaffirmation of annual guidance. Analysts look for CCB growth of 24.7% in the third quarter of 2026, a touch below the 25% recorded in the same period a year earlier. That bar implies no sharp acceleration is needed to confirm a positive demand picture — though a marked slowdown would sit awkwardly with the resilient-demand thesis.

Cloud revenue is expected to rise 25% to EUR 6.6 billion. These are forecasts ahead of the report, not reported figures, and the distinction matters: broker commentary describes anticipated demand, while this evening's numbers will show whether SAP delivered.

Free cash flow is projected at EUR 1.7 billion for the quarter, an increase of more than a third, against a full-year target of roughly EUR 10 billion.

Guidance frames the debate

SAP is targeting currency-adjusted cloud revenue growth of 23–25% for 2026, with adjusted operating profit growth of 13–17%. Those ranges give investors the frame within which to weigh the demand narrative — and they keep operating momentum separate from the question of when AI will generate additional revenue. Strong demand on its own does not settle how quickly AI adoption translates into financial return.

UBS and Goldman Sachs both see cloud demand holding up through the early stages of AI adoption, pairing confidence in the business with restraint on the pace of extra AI income. Their assessments, published today, carry a caveat: monetizing artificial intelligence is likely to take time, and no immediate economic lift should be inferred. The takeaway is a clear test sequence — contract backlog, cloud revenue and the annual outlook must first underpin the demand view, with the AI story judged on its own merits. Hard evidence on financial impact, not adoption progress alone, is what counts.

Brokers stay on the sidelines

Recent analyst actions hardly paint an unambiguously bullish picture. JPMorgan kept SAP at "Neutral" on October 15, according to dpa-AFX, with no new price target in the note. Two days earlier, AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its rating to "Reduce" from "Add," per media reports.

The AI certification announcement therefore lands between downbeat broker calls and the imminent earnings release. Keeping the two planes apart is essential: SAP is widening its certification offering, while the financial story must be measured against the business figures due tonight.