Rocket Lab's Launchpad Is Humming, but the Iridium Vote Looms Over Everything

Rocket Lab shares fell 23% in a month even as the company logged its 16th Electron launch of 2026 and analysts initiated bullish coverage.

Rocket Lab closed Friday at EUR 54.50, up 2.1% on the day — a modest bounce that does little to disguise a bruising stretch for shareholders. Over the past month the stock has shed roughly 23%, and it now trades well beneath its 50-day moving average of EUR 62.17. Measured against the 52-week high of EUR 133.80 set at the end of May, the shares sit almost 60% lower. An RSI reading of 37.8 confirms what the chart already suggests: sellers have had the upper hand for weeks.

And yet the company itself keeps moving in the opposite direction.

Sixteen Launches and Counting

On Friday, Rocket Lab reported its 16th Electron launch of 2026, a mission dubbed "Happily Ever Faster" carrying an Earth-observation satellite for an undisclosed customer. Another flight is slated before the month is out, this one for a commercial satellite constellation operator. Earlier in September, the company completed its 94th Electron mission overall — the eleventh successful launch for Japanese client Synspective. Two missions ticked off within days of each other hardly paints the picture of a business in trouble.

The product pipeline is widening too. Last week Rocket Lab unveiled IMM Apex, a germanium-free solar cell for space applications that promises an initial efficiency of 31.5% at 40% less mass. It is a reminder that the company now positions itself as a supplier to the broader space industry, not merely a launch provider.

Where the Professionals Are Leaning

Institutional money has been moving in while the retail crowd heads for the exits. The Arizona State Retirement System boosted its stake by 205% in the second quarter, adding 267,742 shares to reach 398,369. Manufacturers Life Insurance Company opened a fresh position. And according to media reports, Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management added to its Rocket Lab holding in September — a characteristically contrarian move that suggests long-horizon investors view the pullback as an entry point rather than a red flag.

Not every signal points the same way. CFO Adam Spice exercised roughly 140,000 stock options in early September and sold the resulting shares at a weighted average price of USD 62.63. A filing with the US securities regulator put the planned sale at 140,157 shares worth about USD 8.8 million, executed through an automated Rule 10b5-1 plan established back in June. Such arrangements are typically set months in advance and say little about management's current read on the business — but the optics of insider selling while institutions buy are worth keeping in view.

Fresh Coverage, Familiar Optimism

Analyst sentiment has turned constructive. Raymond James initiated coverage in early September with an "Outperform" rating and an USD 80 price target, shortly after Berenberg launched with a "Buy" and an USD 83 target. Berenberg's case rests on falling launch costs, a space market expected to exceed a trillion dollars by 2030, and a level of vertical integration the analysts consider nearly impossible to replicate. Both targets sit comfortably above the current share price, sharpening the contrast between how analysts assess the business and how the market is pricing it.

The Iridium Overhang

The bigger drag on the stock likely has little to do with operations. Rocket Lab's pending USD 8 billion acquisition of Iridium remains unresolved, with an Iridium shareholder vote scheduled for September 24. Late in August, SpaceX asked the FCC to scrutinize Iridium's conduct during the merger review, citing what it called a "well-documented history of anticompetitive attacks." The complaint could slow approval without necessarily derailing the deal.

Operationally, Rocket Lab continues to guide for third-quarter revenue of USD 250 million to USD 265 million, alongside an EBITDA loss of USD 17 million to USD 23 million. Not a profit, but a growth trajectory that at least squares with an ambitious valuation.

The Real Question

What the past month has exposed is a widening gap between what Rocket Lab does on the pad and what investors are willing to pay for it. Growth names with heavy capital requirements and long payback periods tend to come under pressure whenever rate uncertainty rises, regardless of how many rockets actually leave the ground. Rocket Lab keeps supplying the facts; the market keeps supplying the nerves. Until the Iridium vote clears, that tension is unlikely to resolve — no matter how busy the launch calendar gets.