Rheinmetall's Twin Catalysts: F-35 Deliveries Begin as €12.4 Billion Boxer Deal Nears

First German F-35 rolls out at Lockheed's Fort Worth plant as Rheinmetall eyes a €12.4bn Boxer deal and a 9 December parliamentary vote.

The first F-35 stealth fighter destined for Germany rolled out of Lockheed Martin's Fort Worth facility this week, handing Rheinmetall a visible milestone in a defence programme worth roughly €10 billion — and giving investors a rare piece of good news in a year that has otherwise punished the stock.

Rheinmetall's shares responded with a modest gain of 0.9% to €1,024.40 on the day of the handover. The Düsseldorf-based group holds a central industrial role in the programme, manufacturing the aircraft's centre fuselage sections. Berlin has ordered 35 of the jets to phase out its ageing Tornado fleet and preserve its nuclear-sharing commitments within NATO. The initial aircraft will stay in the United States for pilot training, but the long-term fuselage work gives Rheinmetall a dependable aviation revenue stream stretching well into the next decade.

A Foot in Both Camps: Air and Land

The F-35 milestone lands alongside a broader push into foreign markets. Together with Mercedes-Benz, Rheinmetall unveiled "Team Wolf," a partnership bidding for the British Army's mobility programme. At the DVD defence exhibition, the two companies showed off new variants — the Timber Wolf and Silver Wolf — built on the military G-Class platform. System integration is slated for Rheinmetall's plant in Telford, England, with around 30 British suppliers set to participate.

Closer to home, the group's traditional land-systems and air-defence units continue to book steady business. Austria awarded Rheinmetall a €532 million contract to modernise its Skyguard air-defence system, while Spanish subsidiary Rheinmetall Expal Munitions picked up a €46 million ammunition order from the Spanish army. CEO Armin Papperger expects the order backlog to exceed €100 billion for the full year 2026, underpinned by sustained NATO demand for munitions and combat vehicles.

The €12.4 Billion Question Mark in Berlin

Yet the biggest potential prize sits with the German parliament. Rheinmetall is targeting a contract volume of approximately €12.4 billion for the Arminius programme centred on the Boxer wheeled armoured vehicle, with deliveries scheduled through 2029. A separate service agreement worth around €2 billion — part of a broader €4 billion service framework — is also on the table. Two additional options could lift the total package to as much as €26 billion.

Should the deal clear its parliamentary hurdle — scheduled for 9 December 2026 — Rheinmetall anticipates a 30% down payment exceeding €3 billion, due at the end of December or in January. Management expects to sign the contract within five to ten days of a positive vote. The programme has taken on added weight after the F126 frigate project fell away more than a month ago, shifting the group's near-term focus squarely onto land systems.

Management Buying While the Chart Repairs Itself

The stock has had a bruising year, down 34% since January. But the pullback has not gone unnoticed inside the company: Rheinmetall's leadership used the correction to make significant share purchases. Market participants have also taken note of the shares defending the €1,000 mark in recent sessions, a level analysts view as an important stabilisation signal. At a current price of €1,022.00, the stock trades 13% above its 52-week low.

Sentiment around the risk-reward profile has improved following the recent shakeout. A successful Arminius vote in December would not only bolster the existing backlog but also lock in revenue visibility through the end of the decade. Until then, the final rounds of negotiation with procurement authorities remain the decisive variable for the company's business momentum. Investors will get their next hard data point on 5 November 2026, when Rheinmetall reports third-quarter figures.