Rheinmetall's Shadow and a Record Backlog: Hensoldt's Split-Screen Quarter

Hensoldt's order book has never looked stronger, yet its share price told a different story on Friday. The defence electronics maker shed 3.8% to close at €77.78, dragged down not by its own nine-month report but by Rheinmetall's profit warning, which rippled across the European defence sector, according to dpa-AFX.

The paradox is hard to miss. Record orders and a raised full-year revenue target apparently fell short of what investors had already priced in, and media reports suggested the elevated sales guidance landed below analyst consensus. Rheinmetall's downward revision to its own annual expectations, first flagged on Thursday, cast a pall that Hensoldt could not outrun despite its more optimistic planning.

What the numbers actually showed

For the first nine months of 2026, Hensoldt posted revenue of €1.86 billion, a 21.3% increase year on year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 33.0% to €281 million. Order intake hit €3.56 billion — growth of 76.7% — lifting the order backlog to a record €10.4 billion.

Alongside those figures, the company lifted its 2026 revenue forecast to around €2.8 billion, up from roughly €2.8 billion previously. It also sharpened its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to around 19.0%, narrowing the earlier range of 18.5–19.0%.

The sell side is not speaking with one voice

Reactions to the quarterly update diverged sharply. LBBW cut its price target to €85 from €100 on Friday while keeping a "Hold" rating. Deutsche Bank Research, by contrast, reaffirmed its "Buy" call the same day with a €105 target. Two further research houses had already restated their views on Thursday — targets of €98 and €100, with "Buy" and "Neutral" ratings respectively.

Jefferies stood by its "Buy" recommendation and €98 target on Thursday, with analyst Ben Brown describing the 2026 revenue goal as conservative. JPMorgan, meanwhile, maintained its "Neutral" stance without changing its rating.

The next confirmed date on the calendar is Hensoldt's Capital Markets Day in London on 10 November 2026 — an event that now carries more weight than usual, given the gap between the company's own confidence and the market's cooler reception.