Rheinmetall's Order Pipeline Keeps Growing, But the Chart Says the Hard Part Is Still Ahead
Published on 08/21/2026 at 09:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Fresh business keeps landing on Rheinmetall's desk — the latest being a Bundeswehr contract worth more than €500 million for 149 mobile rescue stations — yet the share price is still wrestling with a technical ceiling that will decide whether the recent rebound has any legs.
The stock was indicated at €1,159.80 in pre-market trading on Friday, down 0.2% from the prior close. That modest dip masks a stronger short-term picture: the shares have gained 14% over the past month and have climbed well clear of the June low of €902.50. But the real test sits higher up, at the 100-day moving average of €1,208.69. Until that level gives way, the broader trend remains damaged — the stock is still nearly 19% below its 200-day average of €1,429.61, and the RSI at 53.5 points to a market that has yet to pick a direction.
The Bull Case: Numbers That Do the Talking
The recovery attempt has technical support of its own. Buyers have stepped in at lower levels, and the shares have already reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Underneath that price action sits a set of half-year figures that gave the bulls plenty of ammunition.
Revenue jumped 39% to €5.2 billion in the first six months, while operating profit surged 74% to €786 million. The second quarter alone contributed €562 million — nearly 20% above the consensus analyst estimate of €469.9 million. The order book, meanwhile, stood at €80.5 billion as of June 30, a record that keeps growing.
The DZ Bank team wasn't swayed by the recent guidance cut. They reiterated their "Buy" rating with a €1,705 price target, pointing to the strength of the final numbers. If that confidence translates into further buying, the gap to the 100-day line could close.
The Bear Case: Guidance and Cash Flow Cast a Shadow
The counter-argument is equally straightforward, and it centers on what the company itself has said. Rheinmetall now expects revenue of €13.7 billion to €14.2 billion for the full year, down from the previously guided €14.0 billion to €14.5 billion. The culprit is the cancellation of the F126 frigate program.
Cash flow adds another layer of concern. Operating free cash flow deteriorated by €985 million year-on-year to minus €1.616 billion in the first half, versus a minus of €631 million in the prior-year period. Not every analyst is willing to write that off as a temporary blip; more cautious voices argue the risk-reward has shifted unfavorably after the guidance revision.
With annualized volatility at 32%, sharp moves in either direction remain likely. A slide back below the 50-day line at €1,094.86 would signal that the fundamental worries are winning out, opening the path back toward the year's low.
A Full Pipeline, But Questions About What Comes After
The contract flow shows no sign of letting up. Alongside the rescue stations, Rheinmetall and Hensoldt reported progress on networked air defense during the Timber Express 2026 exercise in Manching, Bavaria. Earlier in August, the company announced its order book had crossed the €80 billion mark, helped by €11.371 billion in new nominations in the second quarter alone — including a loitering munition deal with the Bundeswehr and a defense package for Romania.
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CEO Armin Papperger has also been busy on the strategic front. A memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin for joint ATACMS production at Unterlüß was signed in early August, with first revenues expected in 2028. He also reiterated interest in acquiring Iveco's military truck business from Leonardo, a deal he sees as intact despite depending on the new Leonardo CEO Lorenzo Mariani. And a multibillion-euro Boxer vehicle contract with the Bundeswehr should be signed by year-end, according to Papperger.
None of that has been enough to steady the share price. Thursday's close of €1,162.00 was down 1.5% on the day, leaving the stock 3.6% lower over seven days and 25% down since the start of the year. The gap to the 52-week high of €2,007.00, set on October 3, 2025, now stands at 42%.
JPMorgan's David Perry captured the market's ambivalence on Thursday: the second-quarter results were strong, but changes to expectations for the order book at end-2026 and capital expenditure through 2028 point to lower revenues in the 2027–2030 window. The bank reaffirmed its "Neutral" stance with a €1,350 target on August 6.
What to Watch Next
For the coming weeks, the 100-day moving average remains the key technical marker. Above it, the recovery gains credibility; below the 50-day line, the bears regain control. The Bundestag's consideration of the Arminius program on December 9, 2026, adds a political dimension that could shape the order pipeline further out.
For now, Rheinmetall keeps delivering contracts — but the market is still doing the math on whether the growth story extends beyond 2026.
