Rheinmetall's Order Book Swells as JPMorgan Urges Caution on 2030 Ambitions

JPMorgan sees little near-term upside in Rheinmetall, whose 2030 revenue goal of EUR 50 billion exceeds the bank's EUR 36.9 billion forecast.

Rheinmetall finds itself pulled in two directions. On the factory floor, the Düsseldorf-based defense contractor is stacking up contracts from Tokyo to Brussels to Maine. On the trading floor, its shares are nursing a 38% loss since the start of the year, and at least one major Wall Street name is now steering clients toward the exits.

The stock closed Wednesday at EUR 956.20, and by Thursday it had slipped a further 0.7% to EUR 956.00. JPMorgan placed the DAX-listed group on a negative catalyst watch list, signaling that the US bank sees little near-term upside in the equity.

A EUR 50 Billion Target Meets a EUR 36.9 Billion Forecast

The heart of JPMorgan's reticence lies in Rheinmetall's long-range planning. Management has publicly set its sights on EUR 50 billion in revenue by 2030, and CEO Armin Papperger has suggested the company could capture as much as 40% of Germany's Bundeswehr special fund. JPMorgan does not expect the company to formally walk back that EUR 50 billion goal. Yet the bank's own analysts pencil in just EUR 36.9 billion for that same year — a gap of more than EUR 13 billion.

Clarity may arrive at the company's capital markets day on November 27, when management is expected to lay out its strategic direction in greater detail.

The analysts' skepticism taps into a broader shift reshaping the defense industry. Heavy legacy platforms have long locked up capital and timelines, but cheap drones, uncrewed vehicles and AI-enabled systems are rapidly moving to the fore. For established suppliers, the pressure is mounting to defend conventional hardware while developing new systems fast enough to match evolving battlefield conditions.

Kassel Protest, Swiss Dominance and a Japanese Order

To handle its growing pipeline, Rheinmetall needs more production capacity. Beyond expanding existing sites, management is pursuing acquisitions and deeper cross-border supply ties.

In Germany, attention is fixed on the Alstom locomotive plant in Kassel, which Rheinmetall wants to buy to scale up weapons manufacturing on site. Roughly 500 workers gathered at the facility Wednesday to protest the proposed takeover. IG Metall says a high-level meeting between Alstom and Rheinmetall should take place within the next 14 days. Alstom, for its part, said talks are ongoing and should produce a concrete result in the coming weeks.

Rheinmetall's grip on the Swiss market is equally striking. An evaluation of State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) data by the weekly newspaper WOZ shows that three Rheinmetall subsidiaries and one joint venture accounted for 71% of all approved Swiss war materiel exports in 2025. Rheinmetall Air Defence alone received approvals worth more than CHF 1.6 billion. Air Defence CEO Oliver Dürr made clear the company would also deliver to Saudi Arabia if the necessary permits were granted. Swiss voters will decide on a loosening of war materiel export rules in two months.

In Asia, Rheinmetall recently showcased its systems at a defense presentation in Tokyo, where Japan ordered three Mission Master SP autonomous ground vehicles.

New Orders Across Three Continents

Further call-offs have followed on international markets. Belgium's air defense modernization package includes twenty Skyranger 30 anti-aircraft gun tanks, with Rheinmetall playing a role in the program. In the United States, subsidiary American Rheinmetall secured a USD 20.7 million contract for the US Army. The Maine site will produce 3,104 new mount systems and retrofit existing equipment. In the UK, testing of the Challenger 3 main battle tank is advancing, with modernization handled by the Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land joint venture.

Industry data underscores the demand backdrop. According to Sipri, revenues at Europe's largest arms manufacturers rose 13% last year. Rheinmetall outpaced that trend sharply, posting growth of 47%. Order books remain full, though raw material procurement continues to challenge the sector.

Analysts Split on Valuation

Despite the year-to-date decline, some analysts see considerable value at current levels. Berenberg rates the stock a buy with a price target of EUR 1,600, while Bernstein sees fair value at EUR 1,900 — both houses reaffirming their bullish calls. JPMorgan's caution stands in contrast, reflecting a market that is rewarding order-book strength less generously and scrutinizing margin and growth prospects with a more selective eye.