Rheinmetall's Order Book Nears €100bn Milestone Even as Share Price Lags 42% Off Peak

Rheinmetall's order backlog may exceed €100bn by 2026, but shares sit 42% below highs. Investors await Bremen event for re-rating cues.

The defence contractor heading to Bremen this week has a compelling story to tell institutional investors — and the numbers to back it up. Rheinmetall is expected to present an order backlog that could exceed €100bn by the close of fiscal 2026, a figure that would mark a watershed for the Düsseldorf-based group.

That projection rests on a steady drumbeat of contract wins that has continued through the summer. The Bundeswehr's procurement office BAIUDBw triggered the first call-off under the G-CAP II SU programme on Tuesday, covering a modular camp in Lithuania designed to house up to 2,000 soldiers. Construction and setup carry a price tag of €250m, with ongoing operations estimated at roughly €40m per year — a recurring revenue layer that analysts say adds a new dimension to the group's earnings profile.

The Lithuanian contract follows a mid-August order for 149 mobile rescue stations, both protected and unprotected variants, with a gross value exceeding €500m. Denmark's armed forces have also placed an order for the MASS decoy system, which Rheinmetall expects to book in the second quarter of 2026.

Portfolio Reorganisation Gathers Pace

Beyond the headline contract announcements, the group has been quietly restructuring its operations. Following the majority acquisition of Croatian robotics specialist DOK-ING, Rheinmetall has established a new unit, Rheinmetall Unmanned Vehicles, consolidating its unmanned systems under one roof. The move signals that robotics and drone technology are moving up the strategic agenda.

The company has also deepened its technology partnerships. A demonstration with Hensoldt roughly a week ago showcased the integration of passive sensor technology into a modern air defence system, while a new competence centre for autonomous systems in Britain is intended to strengthen collaboration with Canada.

The Share Price Tells a Different Story

For all the operational momentum, the equity market has remained distinctly unimpressed. The shares traded at €1,155.40 in recent sessions, sitting 42 percent below the 52-week high of €2,007.00 reached in early October. The stock has lost 24 percent since the start of the year and 28 percent over twelve months.

The disconnect has not gone unnoticed on the sell side. When Rheinmetall trimmed its full-year revenue guidance to €13.7bn–€14.2bn alongside its second-quarter results in early August, mwb research responded by downgrading the stock from Hold to Sell, cutting its price target from €1,150 to €1,050.

Others have taken a more constructive view. Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie lifted her price target from €1,300 to €1,350 in mid-August, maintaining a Buy recommendation after reviewing the quarterly figures. JPMorgan's David Perry kept a Neutral stance with a €1,350 target, acknowledging strong results but flagging uncertainty around revenue forecasts for 2027 through 2030.

A Market Waiting for Conviction

The technical picture offers some grounds for cautious optimism. The shares trade 5.7 percent above their 50-day moving average, suggesting a short-term stabilisation after the stock had earlier triggered a sell signal. A 7.6 percent gain over the past 30 days indicates that the recent flow of contract announcements is at least beginning to register in the price.

Thursday's session saw the stock climb 2.4 percent to €1,173.40, helped by a broader recovery across European defence names.

The DZ Bank Expert Day in Bremen gives management a platform to argue that the market is underpricing the long-term trajectory. A further opportunity follows on 1 September, when Rheinmetall appears at the Berenberg Stockholm Seminar. Whether investors will be persuaded remains an open question — the gap between a growing order book and a share price still deep in the red suggests the market wants more than contract headlines before it re-rates the stock.